I noticed that while everyone is talking about geopolitical risks, a quiet crisis inside the U.S. financial system is rapidly escalating. This private credit crisis really looks like 2008—investor crowds want to redeem, funds are shutting down, and assets are being sold.

BlackRock’s move is the clearest signal. This week, the world’s largest investment management firm announced that it would limit redemptions in its $260 billion HPS corporate loan fund. Shareholders wanted to withdraw a 9.3% stake, but management capped it at 5%—about $12 billion. BlackRock says this is for liquidity management, but the market understands the real meaning: if everyone redeems, assets will have to be sold on a large scale.

This is not the only incident. Blackstone’s private credit fund received a record 7.9% redemption requests—there is a legal limit of 7%. Blue Oval Capital is in even worse shape. It sold $1.4 billion in assets, and its share price has now fallen below the SPAC launch price of $10. Three giants, three crises—the pattern is clear.

What is most concerning is this negative cycle. When redemptions increase, fund managers sell. Selling drives prices down. As prices fall, more people want to redeem. This loop was also seen in 2008, when it started from a small corner of the subprime market.

In its latest report, PIMCO issued a clear warning: the private credit sector will now have to face a “full cycle default period.” Even large funds like $260 billion are not immune. PIMCO analysts identified three main problems: first, after 2008, regulatory standards were continuously loosened; second, heavy exposure in the software sector, which is declining due to the impact of AI; third, investors are not receiving sufficient risk premiums for their long capital lock-ups.

Blue Oval’s situation is even more severe. It is taking a $48 million loss in London’s Century Capital Partners, which has just filed for bankruptcy. This shows how much risk was hidden during the expansion of private credit.

How different is today’s situation from 2008? The private credit market is now $1.8 trillion. Risk is concentrated, valuations are opaque, and liquidity is inconsistent. If this crisis spreads, it could shake the entire financial system. There is still time to exercise caution.