Attention, BTC is getting closer to the pain point for long-term holders. They are still making around 74% profit, but that margin is getting thinner as the price moves closer to their cost basis of about $38,900. If the price breaks below this level, we might see a massive surrender phase with realized losses reaching 20% — and history shows that this usually marks the market bottom in a bear phase.

There are several quite noticeable signals right now. The realized gain/loss ratio has dropped below 1, meaning the market is in an excessive realized loss phase. The weekly RSI is also at one of the most oversold levels in Bitcoin’s history, and realized volatility over the past week spiked above 150% — a level typically seen during capitulation. Additionally, the supply of BTC in loss just hit 10 million coins, the fourth-highest reading of all time.

Meanwhile, there was a small recovery yesterday, with BTC rising $2,000 back to $66,000, but this move feels artificial. Sentiment remains predominantly bearish, and support at $60,000 is still a critical level. According to the latest data, BTC is now at $77.49K with a +1.63% change in 24 hours, but if we look at the accumulated losses in traders’ realized accounts, the picture still looks quite bleak in the short term. We need to see whether the $60,000 support will hold or if we will see an even deeper surrender phase.