I only recently noticed the movement of commodity currencies in the G10 currencies a few months ago, those being the Australian dollar, Norwegian krone, and New Zealand dollar at that time were quite rising, each around 6%, 5%, and 4% during that period. All three became the leaders among G10 currencies at that time.

What’s interesting is the reason behind it. Turns out, traders at that time were repricing global interest rate expectations. They started to think that major economies might stop cutting interest rates and refocus on inflation. The Reserve Bank of Australia had already begun raising interest rates, with the trimmed mean inflation rising to 3.4%, which made the market confident that more hikes were ahead. Norway also gained attention due to inflation exceeding expectations. Meanwhile, New Zealand benefited from market speculation about interest rate hikes in the coming months.

Commodities also contributed to this movement. Prices of oil, copper, and other goods rose, causing these three commodity currencies to move together more strongly. Strategically at that time, it showed that with Australian interest rates starting to be above the US for the first time in several years, plus a weakening dollar, funds began flowing into economies with healthier fiscal conditions and good commodity exposure.

But on the other hand, there was debate about what the Fed would do. Although the market still expected several rate cuts, some institutions believed the Fed could hold steady throughout the year. Inflation risks remained above target, so discussions about a 'new hawkish era' became increasingly lively at that time.