Interesting observation in the Bitcoin market. The price is currently holding around $77.5K, but selling pressure remains serious, and many traders are expecting further declines. The candlestick structure leaves room for a drop below $60K, which raises quite natural questions.

You know what intrigues me the most? If you look at the history of Bitcoin's price since its peak in 2021 and earlier, you can notice a clear pattern. Each major bear market becomes less destructive than the previous one. This is no coincidence.

Recall: after the 2011 peak, Bitcoin fell by 93%. In 2013, the decline was smaller — 87%. After the 2017 boom, the dip was 84%. And in 2021-2022, the bear cycle stopped at just 78%. Do you see the trend? The market is growing, becoming more liquid, and volatility is gradually decreasing.

If this pattern holds, even in the worst-case scenario, a 70% drop from the 2025 peak ($126K) would place Bitcoin around $37K. But there's an interesting point — Bitcoin has never closed a monthly candle below the 2021 high (around $69K) during a bear market. This could be a hidden support level.

However, there's one more thing. The current price pattern is surprisingly similar to what happened in 2022. Remember September of that year? Bitcoin rebounded to $18K, then rose to $21K — it was a classic bull trap that lured buyers before another drop. It looks like we're seeing a repeat of that scenario right now. The bear trap was a fall to $60K in February, then a bull trap with a rise to $74K. If history repeats, the next bottom could be around $50K.

This is not a forecast, just a technical picture many analysts see. The market is evolving, but patterns remain. It's worth paying closer attention to supports and not getting caught by rebounds.