Recently, I've seen a bunch of people staring at whale address screenshots and wanting to copy trades. I really want to stick a "withdraw button" on your phone... First, ask: are they building a position, or are they hedging/rebalancing? The same on-chain transfer looks like "adding to a position," but it might just be shifting risk elsewhere, or even moving margin for market making/lending. If you follow and rush in, you're helping them ride the volatility.

And now, the interest rate cut expectations fluctuate between hot and cold, and the discussion about the dollar index rising and falling with risk assets is pretty confusing. When macro sentiment twists, whales prefer to hedge and wrap themselves up. To put it simply, what you see are actions, not intentions.

By the way, I don't see "long-term" as that grand: if you can withstand a round of emotional swings and still not want to delete the app, that's considered long-term... probably about a month to a quarter. During the week, I just treat it as practicing my mindset. Anyway, before copying trades, think about: how do I exit, at what price/conditions, or else you're just gambling with luck as your strategy.