I have spent the past few days analyzing the charts and there’s something interesting happening. Traders are increasingly talking about the possibility of a new altcoin season, but when I look at the altcoin season index, I get a suspicious feeling. The index is hovering around 31, which means we are still far from a scenario fully dominated by altcoins.

What caught my attention was a pattern some analysts shared. If you look at the historical market capitalization of altcoins, you can clearly see two previous well-defined cycles — 2018 and 2021 were brutal in terms of gains. Now some charts suggest that we might be at the beginning of a third cycle. The OTHERS/BTC pair showed an MACD crossing upward on the monthly, and a descending wedge has formed, which technically would be a reversal signal.

But here’s the problem: the altcoin season index still doesn’t confirm anything. To have a true altcoin season, you need most of the major altcoins to outperform Bitcoin simultaneously. It’s not just one or two rising; it’s a broad movement. Some cycle charts point to February 2026 as a potential inflection point, but that’s aspirational, not confirmed.

What I’m seeing is more of an environment of observation rather than real confirmation. The technical signals are interesting, but without the altcoin season index rising significantly, it’s hard to say we’re in a phase of true altcoin dominance. It might change in the coming months, but for now, it’s more prudent to wait for a definitive breakout before betting everything on it.