Recently, I noticed a pretty interesting phenomenon—the market seems to have fallen into some kind of trading dead zone. A seasoned investor who’s deeply involved in the crypto market recently admitted that in the first quarter, they basically didn’t do much trading at all, except for gradually adding to their long positions on Hyperliquid. There’s a reason for that.

He believes there are two cliffs right in front of us. One is the risk of a deflationary collapse brought on by the AI wave. As AI agents become more and more efficient, the jobs of ordinary knowledge workers are being taken away. The U.S. economy is driven by consumption for 70% of its activity, and once a true wave of white-collar unemployment hits, banks’ consumer credit assets will blow up. The other cliff is geopolitics—an Iran war could completely rewrite the rules of dollar hegemony.

This crypto player analyzed three possible scenarios in detail. The first is that the war ends immediately and everything returns to normal. But the AI deflationary bomb is still ticking—Bitcoin might rebound slightly first, but to really surge, they would need the Fed to significantly flood the market with liquidity. The second scenario is more interesting—if Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, countries would be forced to pay transit tolls in RMB. This could mean the petrodollar era may truly be coming to an end. Countries would sell off dollar-denominated assets to buy gold, then use gold to exchange for RMB. In the process, U.S. Treasuries and tech stocks would get hammered, and Bitcoin would also face pressure—until central banks start printing money.

He specifically pointed out that if the strait is blocked and causes oil prices to spike, that would be the worst-case situation. The global economy would be severely hit, and Bitcoin would initially fall too. But once an over-leveraged financial system collapses, the printing presses would start. However, if Iran is completely destroyed, the risk of a third world war would rise sharply—at that point, Bitcoin’s rebound might only be a brief, fleeting moment.

What’s most interesting is his specific observations about the impact of AI. He talked about a friend—an entrepreneur who builds crypto games—who used the latest Claude model to code something. So what happened? In just four days, one person completed work that would normally take six months. This guy then directly decided to lay off 50% of his staff. Ordinary engineers really are becoming redundant. Unemployment benefits can pay up to $28,000 a year, but knowledge workers earn $85,000 to $90,000. Defaulting on bank debts is the only way out.

So the logic right now is this: Bitcoin might drop first, but ultimately it will outperform all mainstream assets. At the moment, he’s only willing to increase his risk exposure to gold and Hyperliquid governance tokens. As for Bitcoin, he’ll wait until Bitcoin’s performance relative to tech stocks is strong enough before considering a major add. If Bitcoin can hold $60,000 and successfully pass a second test, that would be the signal to add positions.

To be honest, this analytical framework is pretty clear-headed. The market really is at a crossroads—whether it’s AI deflation or geopolitical storms, both could reshape the entire financial system. In this kind of uncertainty, many seasoned crypto investors choose to wait. They’re not waiting for a price rebound—they’re waiting for the moment when central banks truly start to loosen policy and “flood the market.” Then, Bitcoin’s performance might surprise everyone.