BTC Evening Market Analysis:

Compared to this morning's core change: price rebounded from $76,259 to $77,573 (+1.7%), technicals shifted from "oversold rebound accumulation" to "strong rebound + hidden divergence at the top," capital flow changed from "ETF continuous net inflow" to "ETF beginning net outflow."
Bearish: Daily MACD double top divergence confirmed + ETF turned to net outflow + FOMC hawkish risk + 15-minute SAR turned bearish. If $77,900 cannot be broken through, the top divergence may trigger a pullback, initially looking at $76,000–$76,200, and if broken, then down to $75,000–$75,800. The FOMC hawkish statement may accelerate the decline to $74,000–$74,900. If ETF capital outflow continues, it will weaken institutional buying support.
Bullish: 15-minute bullish alignment + DMI strong rise + volume increase + daily DMI upward trend + Fear & Greed Index at 26 (extreme fear, mid-term bottom signal) + Strategy continues to increase holdings + Block merchants accelerating adoption. If volume breaks through $77,900 → $78,000–$79,000, the top divergence will be digested, and the rebound can target $79,500–$80,700. The unexpected dovish FOMC could serve as a catalyst.
Key observation points:
FOMC statement (today): the most critical event, hawkish → pullback, dovish → accelerated rebound
Can $77,900 be broken: today's high + 15-minute SAR bearish turn, breaking through may digest the top divergence
Can $78,000–$79,000 be reclaimed: key resistance zone for medium-term reversal
ETF capital outflow continuation: if outflows persist, institutional buying support weakens
Volume sustainability: current volume increase is of high quality, needs to be maintained
Trading references:
Caution before FOMC: before today’s FOMC statement release, it is recommended to hold light positions or stay on the sidelines, as event risk is high
Rebound follow-up: if volume breaks through $77,900 and stabilizes, consider light long positions, stop-loss below $76,800, target $78,500→$79,500
Top divergence defense: if resistance near $77,900 causes a pullback and 15-minute SAR turns bearish, consider light short positions, stop-loss above $78,200, target $76,200→$75,800
Mid-term layout: Fear & Greed Index at 26 suggests a possible near-term bottom, but daily top divergence + ETF outflow advise waiting for a pullback before re-entering, with $74,000–$75,000 as a better mid-term entry zone
Note: Daily top divergence is a mid-term warning signal; rebound operations require stricter stop-loss; ongoing tracking of ETF capital flow changes is necessary.