I noticed something interesting on Bitcoin's 3-day chart right now. The price just tested $77,600, but the technical structure concerns me. What analysts call the death cross pattern has formed — that's when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average. Historically, this signal has never really ended well for prices.

Looking at previous cycles, every time this death cross pattern occurred during bearish phases, we saw serious corrections. In 2022 and 2018, after the signal appeared, prices dropped about 52%. If the same scenario repeats this time, we could see Bitcoin fall to around $36,000 to $40,000. The Fibonacci levels at $40,000 and $36,000 roughly correspond to these historical zones.

What intrigues me is that Bitcoin reached $77,900 a few days ago — an interesting peak fueled by short liquidations and spot ETF inflows. But the momentum quickly fizzled out. Currently, the price remains below the two main moving averages, which generally signals bearish conditions. The 14-day RSI is at 45, so we're in a rather neutral territory for now.

It's true that this death cross pattern isn't a guarantee, but the history of previous markets suggests caution. Traders are already talking about the $36,000 zone as a potential accumulation area. Stay tuned.