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I am looking at Polymarket - the odds of NFT revival by the end of the year jumped to 65%, which is the highest in the contract's history. People are clearly overestimating the chances of the sector's recovery. Over the week, bets increased by 30%, and more than a million dollars have already been invested in the contract.
On the surface, it seems logical - NFT market capitalization remains above $3 billion, trading volume in 24 hours surged by 26% to $4.5 million. CryptoPunks and Bored Apes are indeed showing movement. But if you dig deeper, the picture is quite different. CryptoPunks has fallen 80% from its 2021 peak, Bored Apes lost 95%. Even if prices rise further, long-term holders are still in the red.
Will NFTs truly return? I doubt it. The market has lost its usefulness; platforms like OpenSea have turned away from the sector, shifting to DeFi. Nike shut down RTFKT, X2Y2 is winding down NFT services. NFT Paris was even canceled last week. The 65% odds look optimistic, but reality tells a different story.