I just checked Polymarket and bets on an NFT recovery in 2026 are already at 65%, the highest we've seen. The prediction platform has over $1.12 million wagered on this contract, so clearly there are people who believe in NFTs making a comeback this year.

The NFT market capitalization is currently around $3 billion, mainly driven by major projects like CryptoPunks and Bored Apes. Trading volume also increased by 26% in the last day, reaching $4.5 million. It sounds bullish on paper.

But here’s what worries me: even with all these positive numbers, most collections are still well below their 2021 peaks. CryptoPunks has fallen 80% from its high, Bored Apes lost 95%. For the sector to return to the $15 billion level of 2022, it would need to multiply by five before the end of the year, which is quite ambitious.

Additionally, platforms like OpenSea are pivoting toward other businesses instead of focusing on NFTs, and projects like Nike have already exited the space by shutting down RTFKT. X2Y2 also recently closed its NFT service. So although Polymarket’s numbers sound optimistic, the NFT comeback remains uncertain. The market would need fundamental changes in utility for this to become real.