I just reviewed the current crypto landscape, and honestly, we’re at an interesting point in the cycle. Bitcoin hit $126K months ago, but now it’s around $77.5K. It looks like a brutal drop, but if you view it from the right perspective, this is exactly what needs to happen before the next crypto bull run.

Liquidity is king in digital markets. When it contracts, everything hurts. And right now, there’s a perfect storm: the Fed is still draining its balance sheet, macroeconomic pressures are everywhere, the dollar is strong, and ETF flows have weakened. Plus, there are initial public offerings absorbing capital that would normally go into risk assets. It’s as if the system is pulling money from everywhere at once.

But here’s the important part: these periods aren’t exceptions in crypto. They’re part of the cycle. And the next crypto bull run typically comes after a cleansing like this.

Looking at the year quarter by quarter, the pattern is clear. We’re currently in the liquidation phase, where leveraged and speculative positions are being flushed out. It hurts, but it’s necessary. Mid-year, there could be a temporary rebound when opportunistic buyers step in. Then probably more volatility toward the end of the year. But after all of this plays out, that’s when you typically see the most serious bullish move.

What keeps me optimistic is that structural demand has grown a lot compared with previous cycles. There’s more institutional participation, stronger infrastructure, and regulated access. It’s not the same as five years ago. Also, if inflation keeps falling, the Fed could start lowering rates later on. Historically, when liquidity loosens, risk assets explode.

Bitcoin could recover toward $100K and potentially much more by the end of the year if conditions improve. But the path won’t be linear. There will be corrections and moments of stress. That’s how the next crypto bull run works in the real world.

For those navigating this, the strategy is different depending on where we are in the cycle. Right now, maintaining cautious exposure makes sense as long as volatility stays elevated. But as the year progresses and things stabilize, you can gradually increase. In the second half, if liquidity starts to loosen, that’s when you become more aggressive.

Moments of stress like this create opportunities. Troubled assets, special situations, and mispriced values in crypto and blockchain tend to appear during these phases. It’s not the time to chase momentum after the market has already moved. It’s the time to position yourself before.

The reality is that 2026 probably won’t be a classic bull year or a prolonged bear market. It will be a transition year, a reset. Markets will first remove the weak and force the exit of excessive leverage. It’s uncomfortable in real time, but it sets the stage for what comes next.

Volatility isn’t just noise. It’s the mechanism through which markets reorganize and create opportunities. And if the pattern holds, this upcoming crypto bull run could be stronger precisely because we’re clearing everything out right now. The ones who win will be the people who position themselves today, not the ones who chase the move afterward.