Here is a straightforward, unemotional, and objective interpretation (⚠️ does not constitute investment/trading advice):

1. Tonight’s Federal Reserve meeting: Will BTC really “experience a routine plunge”?

You say “BTC has fallen 10–30% after the last 5 rate hikes,” which is a historical pattern, but this time the conditions are different:

1. The interest rate itself is not in question – market consensus expects: maintain 3.50%–3.75% unchanged (probability over 99%)
- The real influence is not “whether to raise rates,” but Powell’s tone in his final speech (hawkish/dovish bias)
2. BTC has already dropped in advance – from above 80k to around 75.5k, with the fear index falling to 29 (fear zone)
- Short-term funds and leveraged longs that needed to run have already digested some of this yesterday
3. Key support levels – the 74.5k and 70.5k you mentioned are strong supports
- Short-term resistance: 78k–79k (your position is basically correct)

My neutral assessment:

- It’s unlikely to drop 30% directly like previous times: negative factors are already priced in, and there are no surprises in rates
- More likely scenario:
- After the rate decision, a slight fluctuation/rebound first (7.7–70.5k)
- Then a 3–7 day oscillation and correction (not a one-day drop)
- Target range: 7,000–7,500 is quite probable

2. Your “short at 79k, rebound, then short again” strategy

From a technical perspective, the logic is sound:

- Resistance: 78,000–79k is indeed a pressure zone
- Gradual shorting, partial profit-taking, holding some core positions + adding on rebound: a prudent swing trading approach
- Risk points:
- If Powell unexpectedly adopts a dovish stance, BTC could break 80k and reverse
- High leverage makes a sudden reverse move prone to liquidation

3. Crude oil: You’re adding short positions around 108, waiting for the “US-Iran negotiations to collapse”

Current situation:

- Brent is already at $111–112
- Drivers are: US-Iran confrontation + Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions
- The market is pricing in war/blockade premiums

Your thinking:

- The logic holds: progress in negotiations → premium diminishes → sharp decline
- But risks:
- US-Iran talks are unlikely in the short term (they are actually increasing sanctions now)
- The crude oil short squeeze is very strong, rising for 8 consecutive days
- You’re adding short at 108, which is a short-term support/ minor platform, likely to be stopped out early

A safer approach (for reference):

- Avoid aggressively shorting at 108–110
- Wait for clear top signals (long upper shadow + volume decline + news easing) before scaling in
- Currently, with 30% position at 1–3x leverage: leverage isn’t high, but the position is somewhat early

4. One-sentence summary (easy to remember):

- BTC: After the rate decision, likely to oscillate first, then slowly decline; short at 78,000–79k is fine, but avoid full position or high leverage all-in
- Crude oil: The top isn’t confirmed yet; shorting around 108 is somewhat early, better to wait for a pullback or top confirmation before increasing positions