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Polymarket is showing a very interesting traffic sign for the Strait of Hormuz right now. Over the past 24 hours, the option I see in this market is whether ship traffic will return to normal by April 30. The probability is currently at 57%, which jumped 43% in just one day. Trading volume is about $407,000, so people are quite interested in this.
The market is settled using data from IMF PortWatch, where if the number of ships is at 60 or above on average over seven days, it is considered normal. It includes container ships, bulkers, tankers, and all types of vessels. There had been reports from Iran that this route will be safe in the next two weeks, which is why these kinds of traffic signs are appearing in the market.
Prediction markets can always pick up the trend of such events ahead of time. Price changes in the market are reflected here before they actually happen.