I saw that on Polymarket they set the odds of NFTs returning in 2026 at 65%, the highest level they've recorded. The bet has over $1.12 million invested and increased 30% in the last week. It sounds optimistic, but honestly, I’m not entirely convinced.

Look, the NFT market value is currently at $3 billion, which isn’t bad. Projects like CryptoPunks and Bored Apes have recently had positive movements, and trading volume went up 26% in the last day. But here’s what nobody wants to say: CryptoPunks fell 80% from its peak in 2021, and Bored Apes lost 95%. So yes, there are rebounds, but those who bought at the top are still losing a lot of money.

For NFTs to truly make a comeback, the market would need to multiply by five before the end of the year to reach the $15 billion it had in 2022. That’s quite unlikely. The underlying problem is that nobody knows what real utility they have. Until that changes, NFTs probably won’t regain their relevance.

Additionally, there are strange signals in the sector. Nike shut down its NFT platform in December after a year of no activity. X2Y2, which was the second-largest marketplace, also closed its NFT service. Even NFT Paris was canceled last week. OpenSea, which should be pushing for a recovery, instead focused on crypto aggregation. These are not signs that NFTs will return soon. The bets on Polymarket may say 65%, but the real market seems to be saying something else.