It looks like the Bitcoin halving cycle has reached its turning point. The current cycle (Epoch 5) began in April 2024, and it’s already more than 50% complete. The next BTC halving is scheduled for April 12, 2028, so we’re a little under two years away.

During this cycle, the block reward is 3.125 BTC per block, and about 450 BTC are newly issued each day. Since difficulty adjustments occur every 2,016 blocks, the pace of block discovery stays consistent at an average of about 10 minutes. With 104,986 blocks remaining, supply is definitely heading toward the 210,000 coin cap.

Now, looking at the price: this cycle has had somewhat muted movement compared with the past. After the halving in April 2024, it rose about 15% from $64,000 to just under $75,000. But from the ATH of $126,000 in October last year, it fell by nearly 50% to $60,000 in early February. It’s currently around $77,580.

According to Glassnode data, performance in the same post-halving periods has been weaker than in previous cycles. As Bitcoin matures, large amounts of capital are required for big price moves, so this kind of trend may be unavoidable. The rate of change per cycle has also been getting smaller over time.