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I just checked Polymarket and bettors are placing a 65% probability that NFTs will recover by 2026.
It's the highest level I've seen recorded, so something is changing in market sentiment.
The sector's market cap is at $3 billion right now, and although it dropped a couple of points today along with the rest of crypto, trading volume increased 26% in 24 hours.
Big projects like CryptoPunks and Bored Apes are showing movement, which has people wondering if NFTs will actually increase in value this year.
But honestly, I see several obstacles.
The major collections are still 80-95% below their 2021 highs, and to return to the previous $15 billion would require a fivefold increase.
Additionally, platforms like OpenSea focused on other things instead of boosting the sector.
Nike shut down its NFT division, and events like NFT Paris were canceled.
The real question is whether there will be enough utility and interest for NFTs to significantly increase in value, or if it will just be a temporary rebound.
The market lost a lot of momentum last year, so I’m not sure if Polymarket’s 65% is too optimistic.