Recently, I have noticed several positive signals emerging in the crypto market, and it seems that expectations for a rebound are gradually taking shape.

Starting from the technical perspective, Bitcoin has formed a classic ascending triangle. The characteristic of this pattern is a horizontal resistance level at $94,468, with the lower trend connecting the lows since November last year. The recent pullback is a test of this support line by the bears; once it stabilizes, there is a good chance of breaking through $100k in the short term. Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $77,600, still room to reach the all-time high of $126,080, but the momentum for a rebound is building.

Market sentiment is also shifting. The Fear and Greed Index has risen from an extreme fear level of 10 to a neutral zone of 40. This change is crucial—usually, when the index enters the greed zone, crypto assets tend to rise accordingly. Futures open interest and outflows of stablecoins from exchanges are bottoming out, which are all signals indicating a potential market rebound.

Policy developments are also providing momentum. The U.S. Senate is scheduled to vote next week on the Market Structure Bill, which, if passed, would be a positive development for the crypto industry. Market participants generally believe that the Republican and Democratic votes will be sufficient, and that Trump will sign it. This would mark another significant legislative step in Washington following the stablecoin-related bills.

A broader macro backdrop is that the Federal Reserve may continue to cut interest rates this year. Recent employment data has been less optimistic, with only 55k new jobs created in December, well below the expected 70k, and the unemployment rate has risen to 4.4%. Meanwhile, consumer inflation is decreasing, which increases expectations for rate cuts. Once rate cuts begin, coupled with potential government stimulus measures, the flow of funds into the crypto market is likely to increase.

The global M2 money supply is expected to continue growing this year. Historical experience shows that when monetary easing occurs, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies tend to perform well. Taken together, these catalysts are gradually forming the conditions for a crypto rally. Whether it’s policy support, technical breakthroughs, or shifts in market sentiment, all point in the same direction. Short-term, the opportunity for a rebound looks promising.