I just noticed some interesting signals about Bitcoin right now. Data from CryptoQuant shows that the number of BTC currently in loss has surged to approximately 8.2 million units, while 11.2 million units remain in profit. This is close to the conditions seen during previous bear markets. It seems the market is approaching levels similar to the previous cycle’s lows.

However, some experts disagree. André Fauzan Adzsyma from Bitrue’s research team points out that other indicators, such as NUPL and MVRV, have not yet reached the severe levels seen in 2022. He believes that current Bitcoin trading is in the early to mid stages of a bear market, not the final phase. The current BTC price of $77.61K is down by about 52% from its peak, which is much less compared with the 77–84% decline in the previous cycle.

Another interesting point is that the strengthening US dollar is putting pressure on Bitcoin trading. Timothy Peterson said that when the dollar strengthens, global liquidity tightens, causing capital to flow into bonds and cash instead of risky assets. According to DXY data, it has risen by about 5% over the past two months.

In summary, Bitcoin trading indicators suggest the market is under pressure, but it has not yet reached the true bottom. It seems we may still see further adjustments—or at least a longer period of sideways trading—before the market turns around.