Stock prices have surpassed pre-war levels. The S&P 500 fully recovered in 10 days and is close to its all-time high. At first glance, everything seems to have returned to normal. But if you broaden your view just a little, a completely different picture emerges.

The bond market does not believe in this rally. So does the oil market. The fact that the two most important markets in the world are telling stories that run counter to stocks is an unmistakable signal that cannot be ignored.

Looking at the changes from February 27 to now, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen from 3.95% to 4.25%, up 30 basis points. The 2-year is even more striking, rising from 3.38% to 3.75%, an increase of 40 basis points. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil is up from $67—about 37%.

What do these moves mean? What the bond market is implying is that inflation is still sticky and that the Fed’s policy room is not as large as the market assumes. In particular, the rise in the 2-year yield clearly signals the risk that expectations for rate cuts may not materialize.

The surge in oil prices is sending the same message. If geopolitical tensions were truly moving toward resolution, oil prices should already have fallen significantly. But that is not the case. The fact that prices continue to trade at high levels is evidence that the market is less optimistic than stocks.

What the stock market is pricing in right now is a downright utopian scenario: inflation rapidly calming down, the Fed cutting interest rates as scheduled, corporate profits staying stable, and the Middle East conflict being resolved in earnest—everything proceeding perfectly.

Yet much of this rally is being driven not by fundamentals, but by momentum. The market is being pushed higher simply by trading behavior that says “I don’t want to miss out,” while the underlying logic remains unchanged.

When such divergence appears between different asset classes, the real risk is not about who is right, but about how that divergence will be corrected. At present, there are only two paths. One is that a ceasefire agreement is reached, oil falls to around $70, the Fed gains room to cut rates, and the stock market’s view is justified. The other is that none of this happens, and stocks get pulled back toward the realities indicated by bonds and oil.

For now, neither the bonds market nor the oil market shows any sign of moving closer to stocks. Rather, it looks as if stocks would need to decline in order to align with them. The next CPI release is May 12. If it comes in above 3.5%, the narrative of rate cuts in 2026 will be almost over.

Taking additional positions at this point is the same as betting that everything will go in the best direction—war ends smoothly, inflation stays within manageable limits, and corporate profits stabilize. Multiple conditions all have to come true at the same time. If even one of them deviates significantly, the market’s downward adjustment will become swift and severe.

It seems wiser to be patient and wait rather than chase near historical highs. Until the long-term signals indicate a buy, increase positions step by step according to the strategy. Chasing moves that the two major asset classes quietly deny is not worth the risks.