Powell’s final dance, and a chaotic, choppy market is about to hit…

Thursday at 2:00 AM, the Federal Reserve interest rate decision—we all know the outcome (99.6% probability) is to keep the interest rate at 3.50%-3.75%, unchanged. That’s it—this is the third time they’ve held rates steady. As we all know, the news backdrop doesn’t really mean anything.
Most importantly, at 2:30, Powell will hold his final press conference as Fed Chair. Will he release hawkish signals? With inflation staying high + the Middle East situation dragging on without resolution, I feel his resignation is coming soon, and his influence will be reduced. Because the new chair that Trump has appointed, Wosh, is set to take office on May 15. After Wosh takes office, he will most likely cancel the regular press conferences, and Wosh has also hinted that rate cuts are coming. Even if the market is already pricing in a “Wosh easing cycle,” even if it looks hawkish in the short term or on the surface, deep down he might be dovish. The market is already betting on rate cuts in June/September, so before that, I don’t think it will directly keep pushing higher.
Considering the current crypto market: right now, BTC (the big one) has been moving sideways at high levels for several days, and there are signs of a minor breakdown. After the interest rate decision, funds won’t choose a direction immediately. In these days, we clearly see BTC unable to break 79,500—upward momentum is weak. So it’s also possible that it could use the overnight rate decision as a fake move to do a quick spike—push higher. The resistance above 78,000-79,500 is relatively quite strong. If “Old Bao” issues hawkish statements, inflation hasn’t improved, and he says things like not cutting rates—then even if it’s his final dance and his influence decreases, the bulls will probably retreat to some extent. Then a spike is also a chance for us to re-enter short positions.
BTC specific price action scenario:
1. 02:00 Decision lands: rates unchanged, a small push higher to 78000-78500-79500 (fake breakout).
2. 02:30 Powell’s remarks: emphasize inflation risk, refuse rate cuts; price quickly falls back to support in the 76000-75000-74000 range. Why would support form at this level? Because the monthly line closes the day after tomorrow—so it’s only polite that the monthly line close also gets support at this position…
So overall, I’ll be slightly bearish on BTC. During the day, I’ll place short orders in batches above 78000/79100/80300. My shorts are a bit tight—haha, if you know, you know. Maybe I’m wrong. Let’s learn together~#btc