I just reviewed the numbers from the current halving cycle and things are getting interesting. Bitcoin has already passed the halfway point of the cycle with the reward reduced to 3.125 BTC, and inflation is below 1%. What caught my attention is that since the halving a couple of years ago, the price has only increased by about 15%, much less than in previous cycles. It seems that as Bitcoin matures and adoption increases, the movements are no longer as wild.

Regarding the current numbers, the price is around $77,600 after reaching nearly $126,000 in October 2025. Quite a bit of volatility in between, but now it's recovering. What has the market on edge is whether it crosses $75,500, because that could liquidate around $200 million in short positions and further accelerate the upward move.

On the side of Bitcoin price predictions toward 2028, it’s important to keep in mind that the next halving is in April of that year. Historically, these events generate movement, so many are speculating about what will happen. What’s clear is that with each cycle, volatility tends to decrease, and the market becomes more mature. We’ll see if this time is different or if we follow the pattern.