Brothers, recently the crude oil market has gone crazy, and we old hands in the crypto world need to sharpen our eyes. Understanding this signal is more useful than listening to ten analysts' nonsense.

Just yesterday, the UAE suddenly announced it will officially withdraw from OPEC+ on May 1st, ending its 60-year membership. This is the third-largest member within OPEC, after Saudi Arabia and Iraq. This wave of withdrawal is as impactful as an Ethereum fork.
At first glance at the chart, what tricks are the main players playing?
Brent crude oil June futures contracts surged violently, reaching $109 per barrel.
But look at the longer-term contracts, like July?
They only rose a little, stubbornly staying at $103.
Between June and July, a nearly $7 super-inversion was created.
What does this indicate? It shows that the market does not see the UAE’s withdrawal as a long-term bullish signal; funds are panic-buying near-term supplies, while the distant contracts remain cold and unconcerned, not believing there will be a future oil shortage.
From a fundamental perspective, how frustrated is the UAE?
This time, the UAE’s withdrawal isn’t a spur-of-the-moment decision but has been suppressed for a long time.
According to the U.S. Energy Agency, the UAE’s actual current capacity is as high as 4.85 million barrels per day. But within OPEC+, their quota is only a meager 3.22 million barrels per day.
The difference of 1.63 million barrels is all idle capacity that is forced to be unused, with an idle rate of up to 30%.
Among OPEC members, the UAE has been squeezed the hardest. Look at others—Saudi Arabia’s idle capacity is about 25%, Iraq and Kuwait only 10-15%.
Let me clarify the underlying essence for you:
The UAE’s withdrawal this time is outwardly a blatant challenge to Saudi Arabia’s leadership, but in reality, it’s about releasing the suppressed production to make quick money.
The current market sentiment is extremely divided.
The near-term contracts are surging because everyone fears that right after the UAE’s withdrawal, Saudi Arabia might retaliate with a sudden production cut, so they rush to buy spot to hedge risks.
The distant contracts are acting dead because smart money knows: once the UAE regains its freedom, the additional 1.6 million barrels per day flooding into the market will, in the long run, lead to oversupply, making it impossible for oil prices to rise.