Powell’s final dance—this is about to be a chaotic, volatile market…

Thursday at 2:00 AM, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. We all know the outcome (99.6% probability) is to keep the interest rate at 3.50%-3.75%, unchanged. It’s unchanged—this is the third time the rate has been kept unchanged. We all know, and the news backdrop here doesn’t really mean much.
Most importantly, at 2:30, Powell will hold his final press conference as the Fed Chair—will he send a hawkish signal? With inflation staying high and the situation in the Middle East still unresolved for so long, I think his stepping down is right around the corner, so his influence will likely be reduced. Because Trump’s newly nominated chair, Waller, is set to take office on May 15. After Waller takes office, he will most likely cancel regular press conferences, and Waller has also hinted that rate cuts are coming. The market has already started pricing in a “Waller easing cycle.” Even if, in the short term or on the surface, it’s hawkish, maybe deep down he’s dovish? The market is already making early bets on rate cuts in June/September—so before the June/September rate cuts, I don’t think it will directly continue pushing upward.
Taking the current crypto market into account: right now, BTC has been moving sideways at high levels for several days, and there are signs of a slight breakdown. After the rate decision, the funds won’t choose a direction immediately. In these days, we clearly see BTC can’t break through 79,500, and the push higher lacks strength. So it’s also possible that, with the early-morning rate decision, they might pull a fake move to give a spike—could it push higher temporarily? The resistance above 78,000-79,500 is relatively quite strong. If “old Powell” delivers hawkish comments—if inflation hasn’t improved and there’s no rate cut—then even if it’s his final dance and his influence is reduced, the bulls will probably retreat to some extent. In that case, a spike higher would be an opportunity for us to re-enter our short positions.
BTC specific price-path projection:
1. 02:00 Decision lands: unchanged; slight spike up to 78,000-78,500-79,500 (a fake breakout).
2. 02:30 Powell’s remarks: emphasize inflation risks, refuse rate cuts; price rapidly falls back into the support area of 76,000-75,000-74,000. Why would support form at this level? Because the monthly line closes the day after tomorrow—so for the monthly line close, it’s also politely going to form support right around this level…
So overall I’ll be a bit bearish on BTC. During the day, I’ll place short orders in batches above 78,000/79,100/80,300. I’m pretty tight on the short side, haha—those who get it get it. Maybe I’m wrong. Let’s learn together~$BTC