Today, the pulse of global markets beats in Washington.

#FED'in faiz kararı bugün Türkiye saatiyle 21:00’de açıklanacak. Hemen ardından 21:30’da Başkan #Powell will hold a very critical press conference.
This meeting is of historic importance not only because of economic data but also because Powell's term ends on May 15.
1. Expectations and Powell’s Situation
Market pricing and economist opinions highlight the following picture:
• Interest Rate Decision: It is almost certain that the Fed will keep its policy rate between 3.50% and 3.75% (with a 98% probability).
• Inflation and Oil Pressure: Tensions in the Middle East and Brent crude trading around $110 keep inflationary pressures alive. This causes the Fed to maintain its "hawkish" (s tight) stance.
• Powell’s "Farewell" Speech: This could be Powell’s last meeting. The name of Trump’s nominee Kevin Warsh is prominent as a successor, and Powell is expected to send a "stability" message tonight, signaling a smooth transition without unsettling the markets.
2. Technical Outlook for Key Assets
• Gold Spot: The rise in oil prices supports gold as an inflation hedge, but the Fed’s message of maintaining high rates for longer could lead to indecision.
• #Bitcoin: Depending on how Powell manages risk appetite, it could test its support at $65,000 or break above it.
3. Market Scenarios and Possible Impacts
The scenarios that could unfold based on Fed statements and Powell’s tone are as follows: