Recently, I’ve been back to analyzing address profiles: tags, clustering, fund flows. When I open the tools, I feel like I’m looking at the market’s “account book”… But honestly, how much of it can be trusted is up for debate. One person has three or four wallets, crossing chains in circles, and when the exchange hot wallets get involved, the profile looks like it’s been softened with a filter—seems clear enough, but the boundaries are all blurred.

Especially with this wave of testnet incentives and points expectations, everyone’s guessing whether the mainnet will issue tokens. On-chain fund flows suddenly become very theatrical: one day it’s like long-term commitment, the next day it’s all about rushing tasks. I now prefer to treat these tags as clues, not conclusions. If they work well in backtesting, I keep them; if not, I delete them.

One thing I need to be reminded of is: don’t get carried away just because you see a “smart money tag.” First, ask whether this tag is based on rule recognition or if those few transactions just happened to be right. Anyway, I’ll keep recording them slowly—no need to rush to judgment.