Gao Runze Evening Analysis: The Impact of the Federal Reserve Rate Decision on BTC

1. Current background: The decision on April 30th is highly likely to keep the 3.75% interest rate unchanged, with market focus on the stance on rate cuts; BTC is currently oscillating at a high of $77.4k, sensitive to news.

2. Core logic: The rate decision influences BTC prices by affecting US dollar liquidity, opportunity cost of funds, and market expectations. Rate cuts/dovish signals are bullish for BTC, rate hikes/hawkish signals are bearish.

3. Simple technical analysis of BTC

·Trend: Short-term hourly chart shows a bullish rebound, with lows gradually rising, overall leaning towards strength.

·Resistance: The 77,800 level above is a strong resistance, difficult to break through, with insufficient bullish momentum.

·Support: The 76,700 level below is a key support; holding it maintains a sideways to bullish trend, breaking below signals weakness.

·Volume: The rebound lacks volume, indicating a stock accumulation rally rather than a strong primary upward wave, prone to quick pullback.

·Conclusion: High-level resistance and insufficient volume suggest not chasing highs before the Fed decision; hold if support is maintained, and consider a pullback if broken.

4. Key reminder: Focus on Powell's comments regarding rate cut guidance; volatility will increase before and after the decision, so risk management is necessary.

5. Trading suggestion: Short at 78,200-78,700 on rebound, with a target of 76,200-76,700. If broken, look at around 74,000.