Powell’s “Final Curtain Call”: Is it the last casual goodbye, or a crushing farewell blow for the bulls?

Brothers, at 2 a.m. tonight (early Thursday morning Beijing time), old Powell is set to kick off his final formal press conference of his career.

CME’s data has already laid its cards on the table: the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in April is 100%.

That means “no rate hikes, no rate cuts” is already an open secret.

The real threat is hidden in the moment Powell speaks at 2:30 a.m.

This is not just a rate decision—it’s the end of an era, and it’s also the start of a new “high volatility, low transparency” age.

Ye Ge is going to break down the logic behind tonight’s show for you:

1. Powell’s last fixation: Inflation isn’t dead—he would never dare to let go

Over the years, Uncle Powell has always wanted to communicate with the market in “plain and easy to understand” language.

But on the eve of his departure, that inflation monster is still lurching back and forth.

Do you think he’ll play “Santa Claus” in his final performance and bring warmth?

Ye Ge’s call: Powell is overwhelmingly likely to stick with his cold, hawkish colors, leaving the market with his final political legacy of “high interest rates maintained for longer.” He absolutely does not want inflation to resurge into a renewed round of strength because of his softness after he’s gone, and ruin his professional reputation.

2. The successor’s “gag order”: The market is about to lose its GPS

This is the part that makes big institutions the most afraid.

Kevin Warsh—the successor nominee put forward by Trump—is a classic tough-guy hawk. He has even hinted at canceling regular press conferences.

The logic is simple: In the past, the Fed “fed” the market by communicating, so the market could digest expectations;

After Warsh takes over, it may be “do more and talk less,” or even “do but don’t say.”

Impact on the big cake: Certainty is disappearing, and the risk premium will rise sharply.

Once the market loses the Fed’s communication guidance, it will become like a startled bird—where any little gust of wind can trigger violent long-and-short double kills.

3. The “script prediction” for the early-morning market

Whatever you do tonight, don’t gamble on a one-sided move—that’s what rookies do.

The “lure-fools-higher” script: In the early stage of Powell’s remarks, if he mentions something like “the economy is steady,” bulls may seize the opportunity to push up prices and lure retail investors in to take over the bag.

The “squeeze-and-strangle” script: Then, the moment he mentions “sticky inflation” or “not in a hurry to cut rates,” the familiar waterfall needle will drop instantly.

Long-term trend: As long as MLC (the Fed)’s hawkish stance doesn’t turn, and as long as there’s still an expectation that future communication transparency will be reduced, global liquidity drainage will remain the main trend.

Ye Ge’s message:

For those still fantasizing that Uncle Powell will “hand out candy” at the last moment—wake up. This isn’t a farewell. This is clearly a rallying horn for the bears to charge into the market!

Right now, the market doesn’t need mindless faith. What it needs is deep awe for power and for the “zi jin” logic.

At 2 a.m. tonight, Ye Ge will be watching the whole time in the Shipan channel—watch how Uncle Powell draws a full stop to this false prosperity that bulls have been running wild with.

If you’re still hesitating and don’t know where tonight’s needle will be pointing, then lock in Brother Ye’s thinking.

Don’t turn yourself into an insignificant spectator at a turning point of the era.

At 2 a.m., we’ll meet. Bears—continue to dominate! $BTC #加密市场小幅下跌