Recently, I keep seeing people using "tags/clustering" as the gospel, saying that whenever an address moves, smart money is coming in... I have some reservations. Clustering is essentially guesswork: using clues like the same input, change addresses, common routing, it can indeed connect a bunch of addresses, but as soon as there's a mix, a relay, or exchange custody involved, the profile can easily be mixed up.

To me, tracking fund flows looks more like bookkeeping: first drawing a chain of "source - destination - intermediate accounts," then checking for continuity (not jumping to conclusions based on a single large transaction). Recently, the movements of exchange hot and cold wallets are most likely just repositioning, risk control, or settlement, rather than manipulation... Honestly, interpreting it as market manipulation is similar to only looking at one account in a journal entry. Anyway, I prefer to be slow and double-check.