Crude oil is the last main character to take the stage in the commodities bull market—

It’s also the final alarm before an economic crisis—
The script for commodity rotation never changes:
First, gold and silver kick things off; risk-averse sentiment heats up, and smart money begins to flee the stock market—
Second, industrial metals like copper, iron, and coal follow; manufacturing inflation expectations spread, and corporate costs start to climb—
Third, agricultural products and grains take over; fertilizer and energy both rise, and food inflation transmits from the production end to the consumption end—
Finally, crude oil charges to the top; everyone is talking about oil prices, and the front pages of finance every day are new record highs—
When crude oil stands at the center of the spotlight, it often means the party is almost over—
1973: oil prices skyrocket → global stagflation, with an economic recession lasting 2 years—
1979: oil prices double again → global recession, with the unemployment rate breaking 10%—
2008: oil prices surge to $147 → Lehman goes down, and the financial crisis erupts—
2022: an energy crisis → global inflation runs wild, and central banks worldwide start aggressive rate hikes—
The pattern is astonishingly consistent: the moment crude oil hits its peak is not a time to celebrate—it’s the time to escape—
Gold and silver rise, copper rises, grain rises, fertilizer supply is cut off—crude oil stays elevated under the Hormuz blockade, as it takes the final baton—
The most dangerous signals always show up wearing the most prosperous disguise—
#原油 # commodities #经济周期 # commodity rotation