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TheQuietRisk, less than a year with an P&L of over 800k, the strategy is simple but extremely explosive, either he's really insane or I am naive:
Believing that major events in a specific direction will happen.
1. Events are highly concentrated.
2. Events are strongly correlated.
3. Not caring about accuracy.
4. Not caring about large drawdowns.
5. Fully confident, expecting the real world to hit his script and soar to the sky.
He has previously hit:
1. "Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10?" Already certain when not many were discussing it publicly, profit $300k.
2. "US strikes Iran by...?" Hit, profit over $800k.
3. "Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?" Physically destroyed, single profit $487.5k.
According to his current positions, his latest crazy script version is:
US is awesome, Iran is doomed, welcoming the king.
Currently he holds:
"U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027" Yes, currently about $101k;
"Iran regime change by June 30" Yes, currently about $95.6k;
"U.S. gets Iran enriched uranium by May 31" Yes, currently about $58.6k;
"Kharg Island not under Iranian control by May 31" Yes;
"Reza Pahlavi enters Iran by June 30" Yes.
These events imply:
1. The situation continues to escalate
2. Iran's nuclear program is seized or transferred
3. Key energy/strategic facilities go out of control, such as Kharg Island
4. Iran's current regime disintegrates
5. Opposition figure Reza Pahlavi supported by the U.S. returns to Iran
6. Iran welcomes the king, U.S. forces may even station in Iran
Is this really crazy, or human clarity?