From Lehman to Web3: How did Fu Peng get here?

Author: Changan, Biteye

Who is Fu Peng, the person blocking a bunch of Chinese community KOLs?

Many people first noticed him not because of a speech or a report, but because of controversy on social media: some Chinese-speaking industry practitioners and KOLs discovered that they had been blocked by him.

In April 2026, Fu Peng appeared on the stage of the Hong Kong Web3 Carnival, with the identity of Chief Economist at Xinhuo Group.

For many long-term followers of traditional macroeconomics and asset allocation, this name is not unfamiliar; but for Web3 users, the question is just beginning: Who is Fu Peng? Why did he step onto the Web3 stage at this time?

1. Who is he: Twenty years from Lehman to Northeast Securities

There are some inconsistencies in publicly available information about Fu Peng’s early background. What is certain is that a recommendation in 2000 changed his life trajectory: then-chairman of China Northwest Securities Regulatory Commission, Xue Wenshi, sent this young man to the UK.

First stop: London, 1999–2004

In the UK, Fu Peng entered the ISMA College at Reading University, majoring in International Securities Investment and Banking. ISMA was then one of Europe’s top research institutions for international securities markets, dedicated to cultivating analysis talent directly serving capital markets.

There’s also an anecdote from his student years: during his studies, Fu Peng came into contact with some arbitrage opportunities based on information asymmetry, and at one point tried to find profit from them. This experience was later repeatedly mentioned by him as the beginning of his commercial awareness.

Second stop: Lehman Brothers, 2004–2005

In 2004, on the recommendation of ISMA President Brian Scott-Quinn, Fu Peng successfully joined Lehman Brothers in the UK. During his time at Lehman, he systematically learned about the actual operations of investment banking, developed a real sense of risk control, and understood how institutional capital thinks and bets.

He worked at Lehman for only about a year, then in 2005 transferred to Solomon International Investment Group in London’s financial district.

Third stop: Solomon, 2005–2008, and the crisis

At Solomon International Investment Group in London’s financial district, Fu Peng was the global macro hedge strategy head for an event-driven strategy fund, responsible for linkage analysis of financial derivatives, currencies, and commodity markets.

In his later retrospectives, he noted that before 2006, some unusual signals had appeared in overseas markets, such as the expansion of high-risk mortgages: loans were still being issued in large quantities despite income and credit conditions not matching. These phenomena were not fully priced by the market at the time, and overall sentiment remained optimistic.

In September of the same year, Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy, and the financial crisis fully erupted. As a firsthand witness, he saw all this and gained something he would repeatedly mention later: positive feedback loops do not last forever, nor do negative feedback loops.

Fourth stop: Returning to China, 2008–2011, years of exploration

In November 2008, Fu Peng returned to China, taking the role of Deputy General Manager at Shandong High-tech Venture Capital Co., Ltd. In August 2009, he moved to Zhongqi Group as Chief Macro Strategist. This was his first public appearance in China as a chief.

During those years, he was doing something more critical: starting from the foreign exchange market, using commodities as a medium, and gradually linking various assets through cross-border capital operations to form his own analysis system. In 2011, he moved to Galaxy Futures, beginning to appear in media as a special commentator.

Fifth stop: Chonghe Investment, 2017–2019, returning to the buy side

From August 2017 to November 2019, Fu Peng served as Director at Hangzhou Chonghe Investment. This is a phase often overlooked in his career: he shifted from sell-side analyst back to buy side, managing funds and asset allocation.

This experience later earned him the nickname “The most understanding buy-side chief economist,” as he knew what institutional investors were thinking, what they needed, and where they were constrained—fundamentally different from most sell-side economists who have never managed money.

Sixth stop: Northeast Securities, 2020–2025, becoming a public figure

At the end of 2019, Li Guanying, Director of Northeast Securities Research Institute, invited Fu Peng. In February 2020, Northeast Securities officially announced his appointment as Chief Economist. This timing coincided with the outbreak of the pandemic, causing sharp global market turbulence, and a surge in demand for macroeconomic analysis.

His communication style was very different from most brokerage economists: he never scripted his speeches, speaking openly on camera, using down-to-earth language and Northern humor, which attracted many ordinary viewers.

In March 2024, he published “Witnessing the Reverse Tide: Reflections on the Major Changes in Global Asset Logic.” Later that year, he underwent two major surgeries, leaving a message in social circles: “Had two general anesthesia surgeries in two days, will take good care of myself from now on.” On April 30, 2025, Fu Peng officially resigned from Northeast Securities due to health reasons, and his professional information was removed from the China Securities Association website.

Seventh stop: Xinhuo Group

In April 2026, just before the opening of the Hong Kong Web3 Carnival, Fu Peng appeared at the event as Chief Economist of Xinhuo Group.

2. What has he said: Several validated judgments

He has made many public statements, but here are just a few cases with clear time points, relatively clear viewpoints, and subsequent market performance that can be compared.

September 2024, Phoenix Bay Area Financial Forum

In September 2024, Fu Peng delivered a speech at the Phoenix Bay Area Financial Forum, hosted by Phoenix TV and Phoenix Net, held in the Guangdong-Macao Deep Cooperation Zone in Hengqin.

He publicly stated that one of the core issues facing current economic operation is insufficient effective demand and declining investment returns. Persistently falling interest rates reflect a downward shift in the societal return rate; household savings propensity is rising, and enterprises face fiercer price competition amid weak demand. These factors together form a negative feedback loop.

His core view can be summarized as: economic problems are not only about confidence but also related to returns and income expectations.

Fu Peng predicted that if government bond yields further decline, it would reflect an environment of even weaker return expectations. Regarding real estate, he believed that in the long term, the financial attributes of some housing might weaken, becoming more akin to consumption.

Looking at subsequent trends: the 10-year government bond yield continued to decline into the end of 2024, and his judgment about “declining returns” was generally consistent with market movements.

November 24, 2024, HSBC Closed-Door Meeting

This HSBC closed-door meeting was a major event for Fu Peng’s views to spread widely. His remarks were circulated after the meeting, quickly spreading on social media, bringing Fu Peng from the macro research circle into the broader public eye. The speech was titled “2024 Review and 2025 Outlook—Hedging Risks vs. Soft Landing.”

In this presentation, he pointed out that some structural issues in China’s economy had already begun to emerge before the pandemic and have not been fully repaired in recent years. Changes in household income expectations, balance sheets, and employment structures all impact consumption and economic operation.

He placed China’s issues within a broader macro framework, proposing an analytical path:

Ideology → Policy Choices → Economic Structure → Asset Pricing

He also believed that the global environment is undergoing structural changes, including geopolitical shifts and supply chain reconfiguration, which could influence capital flows and asset pricing logic.

Fu Peng predicted that in the near future, economic recovery might face constraints, requiring balanced use of policy tools, and that it would be difficult to rely on a single measure to quickly solve problems. The changing global landscape could have a sustained impact on capital flows.

After the content of this closed-door meeting leaked, it quickly spread on social media. According to public media reports, after this meeting, Fu Peng’s short video platform account was blocked.

Looking at subsequent trends: around 2025, the A-share market experienced a phase rebound, but overall, it remained structurally differentiated. His judgment that “the environment is complex and recovery is constrained” somewhat aligned with market performance.

November 28, 2025, Bloomberg “The Year Ahead 2026” Outlook Summit

In the annual outlook or roundtable discussions, Fu Peng discussed the relationship between productivity and institutions.

He proposed that currently, there is a mismatch between productivity progress (such as AI technology) and the corresponding production relations and institutions. This contradiction will persist for some time, with policies mainly playing a hedging and supporting role rather than fully resolving the issues.

In asset allocation, he mentioned a “structural allocation” approach, such as:

One end representing future productivity assets (like AI-related)

The other end representing assets with stable cash flows (like high-dividend stocks)

Fu Peng predicted that for gold, from a longer-term perspective, its relationship with the global monetary system and institutional changes should be analyzed, while also warning of phase fluctuations and uncertainties.

Looking at subsequent trends: during 2025–2026, gold prices remained strong and hit new highs, driven by factors like central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks. There are various interpretations of these drivers. His analysis of the structural drivers of gold has some explanatory power, but the specific timing and price movements diverged somewhat.

December 20, 2025, Alpha Summit

At this AI and macro-themed conference, he stated:

A core issue in the current AI industry is that infrastructure is relatively well-developed, but downstream applications and commercialization still need validation. The key in the next phase is whether applications can truly land and generate profits.

He believes the market is transitioning from “high certainty narratives” to a “phase requiring validation,” with valuations and volatility both likely to rise.

Fu Peng’s predictions:

• If AI applications land smoothly, they will trigger a new growth cycle

• If they underperform, related assets may face significant volatility

• He emphasizes that in the macro environment, interest rates are no longer the only core variable; more important is whether assets can generate real returns.

• Looking ahead: AI applications will indeed continue to advance around 2026, with some models significantly improving and gradually entering enterprise scenarios. But overall commercialization remains in early stages, and market divergence over long-term value versus short-term realization persists.

April 23, 2026, Hong Kong Web3 Carnival

Fu Peng appeared at the event as Chief Economist of Xinhuo Group, discussing the evolution path of crypto assets.

He proposed that crypto assets are transitioning from an early “faith-driven” phase to a more mature financial asset, with development paths similar to traditional financial derivatives:

Technological innovation → Institutional adaptation → Regulatory follow-up → Inclusion in mainstream asset allocation

He places crypto assets, stablecoins, and AI within a larger macro framework, believing these changes relate to the global monetary system and financial structural adjustments.

He pointed out that “decentralization” does not mean completely removing centers, but rather redistributing and reconstructing existing central structures—another reason traditional finance is gradually changing its attitude toward crypto assets.

3. Why did he suddenly become popular? The dissemination effect of being blocked

After entering the Web3 circle, a controversy over social media interaction methods objectively amplified his public exposure.

The discussion about “blocking some practitioners and KOLs” also led more outsiders to search for: Who exactly is Fu Peng?

After he became active on X, he posted a tweet with a clearly “show-off” tone, roughly meaning: “Many people don’t understand what I’m saying; only those with a certain level of cognition will get it.” Subsequently, a number of crypto-related accounts were blocked or blacklisted by him. That tweet has since been deleted.

The list of blocked individuals includes investors, KOLs, practitioners, and skeptics, including some influential accounts in the Chinese-speaking community. XHunt @XHuntCN summarized the top 200 Chinese-speaking KOLs who had been blocked by Fu Peng.

This action triggered two very different reactions in the Web3 community:

• Supporters believe: This is a macro analyst actively filtering out noise to maintain the independence of his analysis framework.

• Critics argue: Such large-scale blocking is clearly exclusionary, especially in the early stages of entering a new field, and can be interpreted as a posture of dominance or arrogance.

But regardless, this event objectively helped him achieve a large-scale exposure.

People who were blocked posted discussions; those not blocked posted observations; onlookers began actively searching for who Fu Peng is.

In the Web3 circle, this controversial entry method turned out to be more effective than a speech in introducing himself.

4. Why is he here?

If you only look at labels, Fu Peng’s transition from a traditional macro researcher to Web3 might seem like a big leap.

But if you revisit the issues he has long been concerned with, you’ll find that this path isn’t actually that disconnected.

This question perhaps needs to start from earlier observations.

In reviewing Fu Peng’s past public statements, a consistent analytical habit emerges: he tends to interpret young people’s behavior as macroeconomic signals.

When Pop Mart exploded in popularity, he was not only paying attention to the value of individual products but also to the underlying consumption structure: in an environment of slowing growth and weakening expectations, why are young people reducing their allocations to large assets like real estate and cars, yet willing to keep paying for low-priced, high-emotional-value goods?

During the rise of sneaker flipping, he also mentioned that post-90s and post-00s are bypassing traditional stock and real estate markets, forming their own gaming strategies in new trading scenarios. To him, these behaviors are not simply speculative.

For him, Web3 is more like a continuation of this observation: led by youth, driven by emotion, with higher risk appetite—these features recur at different stages, only the carriers change.

As early as around 2021, he mentioned in some interviews that there was a lack of full understanding of Bitcoin within traditional frameworks, but from a liquidity perspective, its pricing logic could be observed. If macro conditions tighten, high-volatility, high-valuation assets might face pressure. This logic was somewhat validated when the crypto market experienced a deep correction in 2022, with Bitcoin dropping sharply from its highs.

In the following years, he did not participate directly in specific trading narratives but continued to observe the field from a macro perspective. From high volatility and uncertainty initially, to the gradual introduction of regulation, stablecoins expanding payment scenarios, and institutional capital entering, the attributes of crypto assets have been evolving.

Based on these observations, he gradually formed a judgment: crypto assets are evolving from a fringe market into financial instruments that can be included in asset allocation frameworks, leading him to enter this emerging industry.

Final words

The controversy surrounding Fu Peng will not disappear.

Whether in traditional finance or today’s Web3 context, he is not someone easy to reach consensus about.

But precisely because of that, he is worth paying attention to.

Not because he provides standard answers, but because his path reflects a recent gap between China’s macro narratives and new asset narratives over the past few years:

• From the impact of the Lehman crisis to changes in domestic household balance sheets;

• From consumption structure, real estate, and interest rates to gold, AI, and crypto assets;

From off-site observation to truly stepping onto the Web3 stage.

Rather than saying Fu Peng “suddenly turned to Web3,” it’s more accurate to say he simply followed his original questions and arrived here.

In the coming years, if more traditional macro analysts appear in discussions about AI and Web3, Fu Peng may not be the last.