Lately, I've been looking at a few blockchain game pools, and it feels like an inflation experiment running at double speed: everyone comes in chasing "output," but the amount in the pool hasn't increased; instead, there's more tokens and expectations out of thin air. To put it simply, the more actively the output is generated, the more selling pressure there is; when prices soften, later participants are even less willing to buy in, eventually turning into a cycle of waiting for others to take the bait.

When I do small arbitrage, I'm most afraid of this kind of "seems lively" liquidity—big on paper TVL, but actually, a single or two trades can drain the depth, and slippage feels like being dragged along. Especially now, with a bunch of testnet incentives and token expectations hanging around, daily guesses about whether the mainnet will issue tokens... When emotions run high, they rationalize inflation, and only after calming down do they realize the pool is just self-satisfied with its output.

Anyway, whenever I see high APY, I first check where the output is coming from and who is buying; otherwise, arbitrage might just turn into helping move bricks. Lone wolves are lone wolves—taking it slow is better than being dragged down by inflation.