April 29 Market Brief Analysis

BTC
Yesterday, after the price broke below 77,200, my first take-profit level for the short position was reached, and the remaining core position was also exited at break-even.

Looking at the current market, the 77,200 level remains a key point for short-term bulls and bears to contest.

From a larger cycle perspective, I won't go into too much detail. On April 22, I closed all my long positions at 78,700, indicating I do not expect a reversal from the downward trend on the daily chart. Currently, the overall trend remains in a weak bearish pattern.

I've mentioned several times that the resistance levels at 79,200 and 80,600. Here's a practical trading suggestion: don't place short orders in advance at 79,200—just set price alerts. Wait until the market surges and pulls back before entering, which will give a better risk-reward ratio. For the 80,600 level, you can still pre-place sell orders on the left side for short positions.

Recently, many friends have been asking whether they can bottom-fish and go long now. Here's my unified view:
If you want to hold medium- to long-term longs, focus on the 73,600-74,800 range on the 4-hour chart. Watch for a dip into this zone, observe the volume and market trend, and consider entering once it stabilizes.
For short-term trading, see if the price can regain and hold above 77,500 within the day; only then is there a chance for a short-term rebound.

Finally, I want to reiterate the overall strategy: as long as the market surges higher, mainly look to short on rallies. Currently, the 4-hour MACD shows a double top divergence. If the price continues upward, it’s likely a trap to chase high, shake out weak hands, and gather liquidity.

If the market doesn’t push higher and instead consolidates weakly, focus on the support at 73,600. A confirmed break below this level indicates a complete shift to a bearish trend, and we can then confirm a one-sided downtrend, taking short positions accordingly.

Before breaking below 73,600, the market is likely to remain in a range-bound consolidation. No one can predict how long this will last. As long as the price surges to key resistance levels, it’s a good opportunity for trial-and-error shorting.

Additionally, keep an eye on US stock movements. Once US stocks break below key neckline levels, it will likely trigger a major correction in the crypto market as well. $BTC $DOGE