$BTC BTC Intraday resistance near 773 above; if the price cannot break through and stabilize effectively, the market will continue its weak decline, gradually forming a large-scale triangle convergence pattern. The key support below is around 755, which is the short-term dividing line between bulls and bears. Once it is broken, the downward space will accelerate.

Conversely, if a volume breakout above 773 occurs, the rebound will extend further, with the next target directly aiming at the trendline of the previous upward channel on the 4-hour timeframe at around 785. If it can effectively hold above 785, then the current bullish momentum is confirmed to continue, and the previous high of 794 is likely to be broken strongly, creating a new stage high, further clearing out the large amount of short-term liquidity below 810. However, after a spike, caution must be taken against main force distribution at high levels and trap longs for selling, strictly avoiding emotional chasing and panic selling; rational trend-following remains key.

The probability of a rate cut in tonight’s Federal Reserve decision is extremely low. Coupled with this being Powell’s last speech before stepping down, the overall tone is likely to be neutral to cautious, not clearly hawkish or dovish. The focus is mainly on avoiding policy statements that trigger market volatility and reducing subsequent uncertainties, with limited immediate impact on the market in the short term.

The geopolitical game between the US and Iran continues to ferment, with recent negotiations, disputes over control of the Strait of Hormuz, and other events frequently occurring. The escalation of geopolitical conflicts remains a constant expectation. Historical experience shows that during conflict escalation, cryptocurrencies tend to exhibit risk asset characteristics, easily under pressure and plunging as global risk appetite declines; during ceasefire and easing phases, emotional recovery rebounds are more likely. The current situation is still in a “fog period,” where any sudden friction could break market balance and amplify short-term volatility, requiring close attention to news developments.

Trump’s second term explicitly positions himself as the “Cryptocurrency President.” After taking office, he signed successive executive orders, establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve, promoting stablecoin regulation legislation (the “Genius Act”), relaxing industry regulatory restrictions, and striving to build the US into a “global crypto hub.”

Positive factors: increased policy certainty, strengthened institutional capital inflow expectations, providing fundamental support for mainstream cryptocurrencies like BTC in the medium to long term.

Practical constraints: short-term positive effects have been partially digested by the market, and factors such as the meme coin controversy involving the Trump family and slower-than-expected policy progress also suppress bullish momentum to some extent.

With the 2026 US midterm elections approaching, cryptocurrencies have become a core issue in bipartisan competition. The political donations in the crypto industry have surged, with plans to invest over $140 million to support “pro-crypto” candidates, promoting deregulation and favorable policies for the industry.

For Trump, the outcome of the midterm elections directly affects his governance efficiency in the two years following his term. To consolidate the crypto voter base and avoid a “lame duck” situation, the outgoing government is likely to ramp up crypto-friendly policies before the election (such as initiating BTC reserve purchases), further releasing positive signals.

Market expectation: After the midterm elections, the US may usher in the “most crypto-friendly Congress in history,” with accelerated improvement of the industry regulation framework, and a long-term positive outlook for crypto asset valuation recovery. #Strategy吸筹速度超挖矿两倍