From Lehman to Web3: How did Fu Peng get here?

Written by: Changan, Biteye

Who is Fu Peng, the KOL blocked by so many in the Chinese-language crypto community?

Many people noticed him for the first time not because of a particular speech or report, but because of controversy on social media: some Chinese-speaking practitioners and KOLs found that they had been blocked by him.

In April 2026, Fu Peng appeared on the stage at the Hong Kong Web3 Carnival, identifying himself as the Chief Economist of Xinhuo Group.

For many people who have followed traditional macroeconomics and asset allocation for a long time, this name is not unfamiliar; but for Web3 users, the real question is only just beginning: Who is Fu Peng? Why did he step onto the Web3 stage at this time?

1. Who is he: Two decades from Lehman to Northeast Securities

Regarding Fu Peng’s early background, publicly available information is not entirely consistent. What can be confirmed is that a recommendation in 2000 changed the course of his life: Xue Wenshi, then Chairman of the China’s Northwestern Securities Regulatory Commission, sent this young man to the UK.

First stop: London, 1999–2004

After arriving in the UK, Fu Peng entered the ISMA College at the University of Reading, majoring in International Securities Investment and Banking. At that time, ISMA was one of Europe’s top research institutions in international securities markets, specializing in training analysts who directly served the capital markets.

During his time as an overseas student, there was another subplot: Fu Peng came into contact with some trading opportunities based on information asymmetry, and for a while even tried to find arbitrage space within them. He later repeatedly mentioned this experience as a starting point for his awakening of business instincts.

Second stop: Lehman Brothers, 2004–2005

In 2004, at the recommendation of ISMA’s chairman Brian Scott-Quinn, Fu Peng successfully joined Lehman Brothers in the UK. While working at Lehman, he systematically learned how investment banking actually operates, built a real awareness of risk control, and understood how institutional capital thinks and places bets.

He only worked at Lehman for about a year, then in 2005 transferred to Solomon International Investment Group in London’s financial district.

Third stop: Solomon, 2005–2008, and the crisis

After transferring to Solomon International Investment Group in London’s financial district, Fu Peng’s position was Global Macro Hedging Strategy Design Lead for an event-driven strategy fund, responsible for linkage analysis across financial derivatives, currency, and commodities markets.

In his later retrospectives, he noted that by around 2006, overseas markets had already begun showing some unusual signals—for example, the expansion of high-risk mortgages: loans were still being issued in large quantities despite income and credit conditions not matching. At that time, the market had not fully priced these phenomena, and overall sentiment remained relatively optimistic.

That same year in September, Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy, and the financial crisis erupted in full force. As someone who witnessed it firsthand, he saw all of this—and also obtained something he would later repeatedly mention: positive feedback loops won’t last forever, and neither will negative feedback loops.

Fourth stop: Returning to China, 2008–2011, and those years of exploration

In November 2008, Fu Peng returned to China and served as Deputy General Manager of Shandong High-tech Venture Capital Co., Ltd. In August 2009, he moved to China Media Group (Mid-Period Group) and took the role of Chief Macro Strategy Analyst. This was his first public appearance in China as a chief.

In those years, he was doing something even more critical: starting from the foreign exchange market, using commodities as a medium, and slowly connecting various assets through the real-world cross-border operations of capital, forming his own analytical framework. In 2011, he joined Galaxy Futures and began appearing in the media as a special commentator.

Fifth stop: Chonghe Investment, 2017–2019—back to the buy side

From August 2017 to November 2019, Fu Peng served as a Director at Hangzhou Chonghe Investment. This was a phase in his career trajectory that is often overlooked: he returned from being a sell-side analyst to the buy side, starting to manage money and do asset allocation.

This experience later led to him being called the “Chief Economist who understands the buy side the most.” He knew what real institutional investors were thinking, what they needed, and where they were constrained—fundamentally different from most sell-side economists who had never managed money.

Sixth stop: Northeast Securities, 2020–2025—becoming a familiar public face

At the end of 2019, Li Guanying, Head of the Research Institute at Northeast Securities, extended an invitation to Fu Peng. In February 2020, Northeast Securities officially announced that he would serve as Chief Economist. At this time, the pandemic had just broken out, global markets were roiled, and in a short period of time demand for macroeconomic judgment surged sharply.

His way of expressing himself was completely different from most brokerage economists. From never writing scripts, to speaking openly to the camera, he accumulated a large number of ordinary viewers thanks to grounded language and a uniquely Northern sense of humor.

In March 2024, he published Witnessing the Reverse Tide: Reflections on the Major Changes in Global Asset Logic. Later that same year, he underwent two major surgeries, leaving a line in his friend circle: “I did two surgeries under general anesthesia in two days—I’ll take good care of myself from now on.” On April 30, 2025, for health reasons, Fu Peng officially left Northeast Securities, and the CSCI (China Securities Industry Association) website immediately removed his professional information.

Seventh stop: Xinhuo Group

In April 2026, just before the opening of the Hong Kong Web3 Carnival, Fu Peng appeared at the conference venue as Chief Economist of Xinhuo Group.

2. What has he said: Several validated judgments

He has made many public remarks, but here we only select a few cases with clearly defined time points, relatively clear viewpoints, and whose later market performance can be used for comparison.

September 2024, Phoenix Bay Area Financial Forum

In September 2024, Fu Peng delivered a speech at the Phoenix Bay Area Financial Forum. The forum was hosted by Phoenix TV and Phoenix Net and held in the Hengqin Guangdong-Macao In-Depth Cooperation Zone.

Fu Peng publicly put forward that one of the core issues facing the current economic operation lies in insufficient effective demand and declining investment return rates. Interest rates continue to fall, reflecting a downward shift in the overall societal return-rate center of gravity; the household sector’s savings propensity rises, and with demand still weak, enterprises face more intense price competition—these factors together form a negative feedback structure.

His core view can be summarized as: economic problems are not only about confidence, but also relate to return rates and income expectations.

Fu Peng predicted that if government bond yields fall further, it would reflect an even weaker environment for return expectations. As for real estate, he believed that in the long run, the financial attributes of some housing may weaken, becoming closer to consumption attributes.

Looking at subsequent trends: the yield on 10-year government bonds continued its downtrend into late 2024, and his judgment about “declining return rates” was broadly consistent with market performance in terms of direction.

November 24, 2024, HSBC closed-door meeting

The HSBC closed-door meeting was an event that allowed Fu Peng’s views to spread widely. The contents of his speech were re-circulated after the meeting and quickly spread across social media, bringing Fu Peng from the macro research circle into a broader public spotlight. The talk title was “2024 Review and 2025 Outlook—Hedging Risks VS Soft Landing.”

In this sharing session, he argued that some structural issues in China’s economy had already begun to show up before the pandemic and had not been fully repaired in recent years. Changes in residents’ income expectations, their balance sheets, and employment structure will all affect consumption and economic operation.

He placed China’s issues within an even broader macro framework and proposed an analytical path:

Ideology → Policy choices → Economic structure → Asset pricing

At the same time, he believed that the global environment is undergoing structural changes, including factors such as geopolitical shifts and the rebuilding of industrial chains, all of which may affect capital flows and asset pricing logic.

Fu Peng predicted: in the coming period, economic recovery may face constraints; policy tools need to be balanced in their use, making it difficult to rely on a single measure to solve problems quickly. Changes in the global landscape may have a sustained impact on capital flows.

After leaked content from this closed-door meeting spread rapidly on social media, according to reports from public media outlets, after this closed-door meeting, Fu Peng’s short-video platform account had been blocked.

Looking at subsequent trends: around 2025, the A-share market saw a period of rebound, but overall it still showed structural divergence. His view that “the environment is complex and recovery is constrained” has some degree of alignment with market performance.

November 28, 2025, Bloomberg’s The Year Ahead 2026 Outlook Summit

In related annual outlook or roundtable discussions, Fu Peng talked about the relationship between productivity and institutions.

He put forward that at the current stage, there is a mismatch between progress in productivity (such as AI technology) and the matching between productive relations and institutions. This contradiction will continue for a period ahead; policy will play a role mainly in hedging and propping up rather than fully resolving the issues.

At the asset allocation level, he mentioned ideas similar to “structural allocation,” for example:

• One side is technology assets representing future productivity (e.g., AI-related)

• The other side is assets with stable cash-flow characteristics (e.g., high-dividend assets)

Fu Peng predicted: for gold, he analyzed its relationship with the global monetary system and institutional changes from a longer-term perspective, while also pointing out phase-specific volatility and uncertainty.

Looking at subsequent trends: during 2025–2026, gold prices remained strong overall and reached new highs. The market still had multiple explanations for its driving factors (including central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks, etc.). His analysis of gold’s structural drivers had a certain explanatory power, but there was a deviation between the specific cadence and price performance.

December 20, 2025, Alpha Summit

At a conference like this, focused on combining AI with macro themes, he stated:

One core issue in the current AI industry is that infrastructure is already fairly well developed, but downstream applications and commercialization still need to be verified. The key in the next phase is whether applications can truly take root and form a profitable business model.

He believed the market is transitioning from “high-certainty narratives” to “a stage that requires verification,” and valuations and volatility may rise at the same time.

Fu Peng predicted:

• If AI applications land successfully, they will bring a new growth cycle

• If they fail to meet expectations, related assets may face significant volatility

• He emphasized: in the macro environment, interest rates are no longer the only core variable; what matters more is whether the asset side can generate real return rates.

• Looking at subsequent trends: AI applications have indeed continued to advance around 2026. Some model capabilities improve significantly and gradually enter enterprise application scenarios. However, overall commercialization is still in an early stage, and the market’s disagreement between long-term value and near-term realization remains.

April 23, 2026, Hong Kong Web3 Carnival

Fu Peng attended the relevant meeting as Chief Economist of Xinhuo Group and discussed the evolution path of crypto assets.

He proposed that crypto assets are moving from an early stage driven mainly by “belief,” gradually evolving into more mature financial assets. To a certain extent, its development path is similar to the development process of traditional financial derivatives:

Technology innovation → Institutional adaptation → Regulatory follow-up → Inclusion in mainstream asset allocation systems

He placed crypto assets, stablecoins, and AI within a larger macro framework and believed these changes are related to adjustments in the global monetary system and financial structure.

He pointed out that so-called decentralization does not mean completely removing centers, but rather redistributing and reconstructing the original center structure—this is also one reason traditional finance is gradually changing its attitude toward crypto assets.

3. Why did he suddenly become a hit? The dissemination effect triggered by one act of blocking

After he entered the Web3 circle, a wave of controversy over social media interaction methods objectively amplified his public exposure.

The discussion around “blocking some practitioners and KOLs” also made more readers outside the circle start searching for the first time: Who exactly is Fu Peng?

After he began being active on X, he once posted a statement with a clear “acting cool” (装 X) vibe—roughly meaning: “Many people don’t understand what I’m talking about; only those with a certain level of cognitive ability will get it.” After that, a batch of accounts related to the coin-circle were blocked or blacklisted by him. That tweet has since been deleted.

The blocked list included investors, KOLs, practitioners, and skeptics. Among them were accounts with significant influence in the Chinese-language community. XHunt @XHuntCN summarized a TOP 200 list of Chinese-language KOLs that had been blocked by Fu Peng.

This action sparked two completely different reactions in the Web3 community.

• Supporters believed: This is a macro analyst proactively filtering out information noise in order to maintain the independence of their own analytical framework.

• Critics argued: Such large-scale blocking has a clearly exclusionary character—especially at the beginning of entering a new field—making it easy to be interpreted as a show of dominance, even arrogance.

But in any case, objectively, this incident helped him complete a large-scale round of exposure.

Those who were blocked posted, those who were not blocked posted observations, and onlookers began to actively search for who Fu Peng is.

In the Web3 community, this kind of controversial entry approach ended up being more effective at completing a self-introduction than a speech.

4. Why is he appearing here

If you look only at labels, Fu Peng’s move from a traditional macro researcher to Web3 seems like a big leap.

But if you go back to the long-term issues he has been focused on, you’ll find that this path is not actually that disconnected.

This question might have to start from earlier observations.

When reviewing Fu Peng’s past public remarks, you can find that he has a relatively stable analytical habit: interpreting young people’s behavior as economic signals.

When Pop Mart exploded in popularity, he wasn’t only paying attention to the value of a single product; he was also looking at the consumption structure behind it: in an environment of slowing growth and weakening expectations, why do young people reduce allocations to big-ticket assets like real estate and cars, yet keep paying for low-priced goods with high emotional value?

During the rise of sneaker-trading phenomena, he also mentioned that post-90s and post-00s are bypassing traditional stock markets and real estate markets, forming their own ways of competing and playing in new trading scenarios. In his view, these behaviors are not simply speculative.

To him, Web3 is more like a continuation of this observation path: young people are leading, emotion is driving, and risk appetite is higher—these features keep reappearing across different stages, with only the carriers changing.

As early as around 2021, in some interviews he said that under traditional frameworks, there is still insufficient understanding of Bitcoin; however, you can observe its pricing logic from a liquidity perspective. If the macro environment turns tighter, high-volatility and high-valuation assets may face pressure. After that, in 2022 the crypto market went through a deep adjustment, and Bitcoin clearly fell from its highs—this logic, to a certain extent, was confirmed by market performance.

In the following years, he did not directly participate in specific trading narratives. Instead, he continued to observe the development of the field from a macro perspective. From the initial era of high volatility and high uncertainty, to the gradual introduction of regulation, the expansion of stablecoins into payment scenarios, and then to institutional capital beginning to enter—crypto assets’ characteristics have also been changing.

Based on these observations, he gradually formed a judgment: crypto assets are evolving from early fringe markets into financial instruments that can be included in asset allocation frameworks. That is why he chose to enter this industry that was taking shape.

Written at the end

The controversy around Fu Peng will not disappear.

Whether in the traditional finance circle or in today’s Web3 context, he is not the kind of person who easily reaches consensus.

But precisely because of that, he is worth being singled out and looked at.

Not because he provides standard answers, but because his path happens to reflect a connection point—an overlap—between China’s macro narratives and new-asset narratives over the past few years:

• From the shock of the Lehman crisis to changes in domestic residents’ balance sheets;

• From consumption structure, real estate, and interest rates to gold, AI, and crypto assets;

• From observing from the sidelines to truly stepping onto the Web3 stage.

Rather than saying Fu Peng “suddenly turned to Web3,” it’s more accurate to say he simply walked here along the questions and awareness he already had.

If, in the coming years, more and more traditional macro analysts appear at discussions on AI and Web3, Fu Peng may not be the last one.