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【Market Analysis】Rebound is not a reversal, the main logic remains unchanged at high levels
1. Core qualitative assessment:
The current BTC rally is a "technical rebound within a downtrend," not a trend reversal.
2. Structural evidence (4H level):
• Previously, key support was broken with increased volume, and the bearish structure remains intact.
• The price is now suppressed below the previous breakdown zone, which has become a strong resistance area.
• Bulls are weak in their upward push, showing characteristics of a "weak rebound," which actually creates an opportunity for bears to re-enter.
3. Trading strategy:
• Core: Do not chase the rebound; stick to short positions on rallies.
• Reference ranges:
◦ BTC: Short in the 77,000-77,500 zone, first target 76,000.
◦ ETH: Short in the 2,310-2,340 zone, target 2,260.
4. Key risk control:
The confirmation signal for trend reversal is whether the price can regain stability above the key trend zone. Until this signal appears, the overall bearish rhythm remains unchanged. Trading should be disciplined, avoiding emotional chasing of gains. $BTC $ETH