As the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision approaches, international gold generally enters a high-level oscillation and consolidation mode. Currently, gold prices are repeatedly tugging near the 4600 level, and the overall market trading sentiment has clearly become cautious, with everyone waiting quietly for this Fed rate decision and subsequent press conference to provide clear guidance.

From the market's general expectations, maintaining the benchmark interest rate unchanged is basically a consensus, with a high probability of keeping the interest rate range at 3.50%-3.75%. This is the third consecutive meeting choosing to hold steady, which shows that the Fed is currently maintaining a cautious balance policy between inflation pressure and economic growth. Meanwhile, as the Fed chair's term nears its end and the nomination of the next successor gradually advances, there are many uncertainties about future monetary policy directions and interest rate paths, making funds hesitant to bet decisively in one direction, naturally causing the market to remain in a narrow range of oscillation.

In terms of geopolitical situation, tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, with the Strait of Hormuz shipping route being blocked, directly affecting the global crude oil energy supply chain. This route carries nearly 20% of global seaborne crude oil transportation. If the blockage persists and intensifies, it will inevitably push up energy prices, revive inflation expectations, and indirectly support safe-haven buying of gold. As inflation expectations heat up, it also indirectly compresses the Fed's room for short-term rate cuts, further increasing the market's oscillation and indecision.

Gold itself is an asset with very strong safe-haven attributes. When geopolitical risks rise and turmoil occurs, it often attracts a large influx of safe-haven funds to support gold prices. However, conversely, gold has no interest income, and in a sustained high-interest-rate environment, the opportunity cost of holding gold is relatively high, which limits the potential for gold prices to surge significantly. Therefore, currently, gold is a typical tug-of-war between safe-haven support and high-rate suppression, stuck in a range of back-and-forth oscillation without a clear direction.

On the capital side, both institutional and retail investors are generally cautious, with many choosing to reduce positions before major data releases to avoid the risks of unexpected news. Short-term funds rely more on technical ranges for trading fluctuations, while medium- and long-term funds remain optimistic about the value of gold allocation amid global economic uncertainties and geopolitical risks, with the supporting logic still intact.

From a technical perspective, the daily chart of gold still maintains a high-level oscillating upward structure, with prices steadily staying above the moving average system, and the overall trend remains bullish. The key support level is at 4550, and the short-term important resistance is at 4650. As long as the price stays within this range, it is considered consolidation. Although the bullish trend is still ongoing, the momentum for chasing higher at high levels has clearly slowed, indicating weak market enthusiasm for buying at higher prices. The 4-hour chart shows continuous convergence, with decreasing volatility, and indicators returning to neutral positions, clearly waiting for news to break the deadlock. If the price stabilizes above 4620 in the short term, it will further test the resistance above; if it cannot break upward for a long time, a pullback to test the 4550 support may be necessary.

Overall, based on the market and news sentiment, gold is currently at a critical turning point. Geopolitical tensions and inflation expectations provide a foundation for gold prices, while the high-interest-rate environment limits upward potential. In the short term, the direction depends entirely on the Fed’s attitude and wording in this meeting. If signals are dovish and cautious, gold may continue to rise from high levels; if the stance is hawkish and firm, a phased decline or correction in gold prices should be expected. During this oscillating and bottoming phase, it is crucial to avoid blindly chasing gains or panic selling. Patience and waiting for the decision to be announced and the direction to become clear, then adjusting the rhythm accordingly, is the most prudent approach.