At 2:00 AM, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision; at 2:30 AM, Powell will hold a press conference on monetary policy. As the 63rd policy communication meeting during his eight-year tenure as Fed Chair, this press conference is likely to be the last major policy statement of his term.

The current interest rate ceiling is 3.75%, and the market generally expects it to remain unchanged this time. In other words, the Fed is very likely to hold steady for the third consecutive time, maintaining the interest rate range of 3.50%-3.75%, a level that has not been adjusted since December last year.

From a market perspective, the unchanged rate has already been largely priced in, and the outcome itself is neutral with a slight bearish bias. What truly influences market direction is not the decision itself but the policy signals conveyed by Powell’s speech afterward.

The market’s key focus now is: whether a rate cut expectation will be signaled, when it might begin, and how the pace will proceed. If the tone is dovish, risk assets may experience a sentiment recovery; if hawkish, market risk appetite could be suppressed again.

For cryptocurrencies, an unchanged rate is merely a neutral stance; the real volatility window is likely to concentrate during the press conference.

Tonight in the crypto space, keep a close eye on the market reaction following Powell’s speech.