📊April 29 15:17 #比特币 Bitcoin Afternoon Technical Analysis First, clarify: Golden Cross ≠ Mindless Longs, a high-level "Golden Cross" is often a trap to induce buying, combined with double top + volume increase + funding rate turning negative (For reference only) (High probability of bearishness around 77,000)

Current price: 77,000 (Bitcoin)

1. Trend Logic (Why Bearish)

1. Structure: Double top break below at high levels

• Previous high 79,400 failed twice, 77,000 shifts from support to resistance.

• 1-hour/4-hour MACD death cross, red bars shrinking, short-term weakening.

2. Golden Cross Trap (Focus)

• After daily/weekly golden cross, history often shows a 10%+ sharp decline to shake out traders, then rebound.

• Currently a "high-level golden cross + overbought divergence," high probability of inducing buying.

3. Funds and Options

• Perpetual contract funding rate turns negative, favoring bears.

• 77,000 is influenced by negative Gamma in options, breaking below easily triggers a cascade down.

2. Contract Short Positions (Around 77,000)

Entry

• At current price 76,800–77,200, go short directly; or after a rebound to 77,500–77,800, add to short positions.

• Position size: 10–15% (10–20x leverage).

Stop Loss (Strict)

• First stop loss: 78,200 (break below 78,000, trend turns bullish).

• Ultimate stop loss: 78,800 (near previous high, to prevent false breakout).

Take Profit (Partial)

• TP1: 75,800–76,000 (short-term support, reduce 50%).

• TP2: 74,500–75,000 (strong support, reduce another 30%).

• TP3: 72,500–73,000 (extreme retracement, remaining 20% for speculation).

3. Golden Cross Response (Prevent Reversal)

• If price re-establishes above 78,000 with volume, close short positions, wait 2 hours before deciding.

• If price breaks below 76,500 with volume, add small short positions, with same stop loss as above.