April 29 Midday BTC Analysis: Strong Low-Level Support, Watch for Rebound Momentum to Continue

Macro and Market Logic

• Macro confidence: Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut continue to heat up. Expectations for loose liquidity provide underlying support for the market, and the confidence of funds entering the market is relatively strong.

• Technical setup: On the 4-hour level, it has completed a “spike high (near 80,000) — pullback (75,600) — stabilization” shakeout. The price quickly recovered to 77,000, showing strong absorption around 75,600 and that short-term selling pressure has been effectively digested.

• Volume signals: Downward moves with expanding volume, accompanied by rebounding on increased volume, matches the “panic selling spilling out + the main force accumulating” characteristics. Short-term momentum is biased bullish, but the 77,800–78,500 zone overhead faces suppression from prior highs.

Operational Suggestions (Optimized Version)

Direction: Long at lower levels (primarily buy on pullbacks, with breakouts as a supplement)

• Entry range: 76,200 - 76,700 (build positions in batches)

• Stop loss: 75,800 (if 75,600 support is effectively broken, the long-side logic fails)

• Targets: 77,800 → 78,500

• Alternative strategy: If there is a direct strong breakout above 77,500 and it holds, you may chase a long position with a small position size. Target 78,500, stop loss 76,800.

Key Level References

• Support: 76,200 (short-term) → 75,600 (strong support / the line dividing bulls and bears)

• Resistance: 77,500 (4H middle rail / prior high) → 78,500 (swing target)

Risk control reminder: We are currently in the window before the Federal Reserve decision. If the price unexpectedly falls below 75,600, you must strictly cut losses. The support below is at 74,500.
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