Xiaomi has fallen below 30. The stock price has been cut in half from its peak.

There’s no doubt Xiaomi is a great company, and it has China’s best founder—Lei Jun.
Don’t talk to me about backlash from “traffic.” I’ve never seen a founder with this kind of net worth sit in a car for 15 hours and keep streaming the whole way. It’s basically no different from Musk back then sleeping in factories.
AI is a main storyline that’s clearly visible for the next 5-10 years.
Most AI is still at the software layer for now, but I believe the trend—whether it’s on-device AI or expanding even further—will be to fully integrate AI into all hardware.
In this trend, there’s a beneficiary that everyone has already noticed—Apple. That’s also why, even with the backdrop of “being behind in AI” and “extremely low Capex,” Apple has still managed to hold steady above 33x PE over the past two years.
Apple doesn’t need to build large models. As long as you’re still using an iPhone, Apple will connect you with the best model it has.
Another company that hasn’t been paid enough attention is Xiaomi. The narrative of Xiaomi’s ecosystem of people, cars, and home doesn’t need to be elaborated. Xiaomi phones, Xiaomi cars, Xiaomi smart home—basically, they’ve already penetrated nearly every layer of everyday hardware. Then, paired with their self-developed large models, this path is simply too smooth.
But Xiaomi is a Chinese company listed in Hong Kong. The impact of Hang Seng Tech can’t be ignored. So I don’t think it’s the most suitable time to buy Xiaomi right now. Because 5-10 years is too far off. What you can see with your own eyes is a decline in car sales, and headwinds for the smartphone business.
I’ve always said this year is the year of a consumer electronics avalanche—so it’s best not to touch any stocks related to consumer electronics.
As for when you can buy? I think it will be after storage peaks. If I’m being absolutely clear: storage won’t die, and consumer electronics has no coming-out day ahead.
From a capital perspective, after storage hits its peak, the pooled capital that has been grouping together will look for new targets.
From a fundamentals perspective, once the “Three Princes” have finished expanding production and the price gets pushed down, the memory production capacity that consumer electronics needs will be there—then terminal prices can finally fall.