The tug-of-war in the final stage of the U.S. “Clarity Act”… a watershed moment with a 50-50 probability split

The U.S. Congress is in the final stages of a tug-of-war over the “Clarity Act” aimed at reforming the digital asset regulatory framework. Industry insiders see it as a long-anticipated “market structure” bill, but some analysts point out that due to intertwined political schedules and various contentious points, its passage remains uncertain.

Dennis Porter, CEO of the Satoshi Action Fund, stated in Washington D.C.: “In my view, there is still a chance for the Clarity Act to pass,” estimating the probability at “about fifty-fifty.” He emphasized that the bill is one of the industry’s top priorities for establishing “clear rules” for digital assets within the United States.

Core contentious points hindering the bill’s progress include ethical regulations, profit products, regulatory authority…

Porter pointed out that slow progress is due to issues such as ethical clauses, wording related to BRCA, adjustments to the wording around cryptocurrency “reward (incentive)” products, and Democratic concerns over the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) vacant positions. He explained that the vacancy at the CFTC, combined with discussions on the regulatory framework, has intensified debates over the allocation of regulatory authority.

Although negotiations are mainly conducted behind closed doors, Porter predicts that the outcome will not be a complete ban on crypto reward products. He said, “It won’t lead to a strict prohibition on rewards,” but also added that “it won’t be in a very open state either,” implying that some restrictions and requirements may be imposed.

The Senate process is critical… The “timeline” for hearings and full Senate votes in the Banking Committee is a variable.

For the Clarity Act to become law, it must first pass hearings and approval in the Senate Banking Committee, then proceed to a full Senate vote. If there are differences between the House and Senate versions, a conference committee will need to reconcile the texts before submitting the final bill to the President.

Porter said, “The biggest concern is when the Banking Committee will conduct markup (clause review), and when the full Senate will schedule a vote.” Market analysts believe that if the bill remains stalled for a long time, regulatory uncertainty related to trading, issuance, and brokerage within the U.S. will persist, potentially slowing industry investment and business expansion.

Midterm elections in 2026 add pressure… Post-approval, reforms on staking and mining taxes are expected.

Porter warned that as the 2026 midterm elections approach, congressional schedules will become tighter, making it more difficult to process the bill. He said, “Time is running out,” and “the closer we get to the midterms, the less likely it is to happen.”

Political stakes also complicate negotiations. Porter mentioned that although some Republicans may want to create a scenario that can be blamed on Democrats, he stated, “Both sides are working hard, Republicans and Democrats are diligently working, and both want to get it done.” Meanwhile, industry groups are preparing for the next phase, expecting discussions on tax reforms related to staking rewards, mining income, and small transactions after the bill’s passage. As of the 29th, the USD/KRW exchange rate was 1 USD to 1,476.90 KRW.

Article summary by TokenPost.ai

🔎 Market interpretation - The “Clarity Act” is a core bill in the U.S. aimed at clarifying the digital asset “market structure” (regulatory system, jurisdiction, and rules). Industry views it as a watershed for reducing regulatory uncertainty (trading, issuance, and brokerage risks). The likelihood of passage is estimated at 50-50, with variables including the “Senate process” (bank committee markup and full vote schedule) and the “time constraints caused by the 2026 midterm elections” (. If the bill remains stalled long-term, business expansion and investment decisions within the U.S. could be delayed; conversely, passage would positively impact institutional capital inflows and the clarity of business models )service design(.

💡 Strategic points - Short-term checkpoints: monitor Senate Banking Committee hearings/markup schedule announcements, whether the full chamber is scheduled, and differences between House and Senate texts)conference committee possibilities(.

• Risk points: wording around “reward” )products( may determine allowable scope and conditions for staking/interest-bearing products); related tokens/platforms may see increased volatility(.
• Policy risks: prolonged debate over CFTC personnel vacancies and regulatory authority distribution could prolong regulatory vacuum, requiring operators/projects with high exposure in the U.S. to readjust compliance costs and schedules).
• Preparation for the next round: after the bill passes, follow-up discussions on tax reforms for “staking rewards, mining income, small transactions,” and investors should pre-check tax treatment standards (tax timing, income classification) scenarios.

📘 Terminology explanations - Clarity Act (Clarity Act): a bill aimed at clarifying the U.S. digital asset regulatory system (market structure).

• Market structure (: a framework defining under which rules and regulatory systems trading, issuance, and brokerage operate).
• CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission): the U.S. agency regulating derivatives/commodity markets, central to jurisdiction debates over digital assets(.
• Markup ): the process where a standing committee amends, approves, and votes on bill provisions(.
• Conference Committee ): a bicameral negotiation process to reconcile differences when House and Senate versions differ(.
• Reward )Products(: a collective term for crypto products characterized by “providing yields,” such as staking rewards and interest-bearing deposits.

💡 Frequently Asked Questions )FAQ(

Q. What does the Clarity Act )Clarity Act( change? It is a bill aimed at clarifying which rules the U.S. should follow for digital assets and the specific responsibilities of regulatory agencies )market structure(. Its core goal is to reduce uncertainty caused by unclear regulations for businesses and investors.
Q. Why has passage been delayed, and how likely is it to pass? The main contentious points include: ethical clauses, wording related to BRCA, regulation of crypto reward )products(, and issues over CFTC personnel vacancies and authority distribution. Industry insiders )Dennis Porter( believe the probability is “50-50,” with key variables being the Senate Banking Committee’s markup, full chamber voting schedule, and the 2026 midterm elections.
Q. If passed, what changes might investors see? After regulatory clarity on trading, issuance, and brokerage, service provision methods and risk disclosures are expected to become standardized, reducing market uncertainty. However, for reward )products such as staking, it may not be a “full ban” but rather restrictions under certain conditions. Additionally, subsequent topics may include discussions on tax reforms related to staking rewards, mining income, and small transactions.

TokenPost.ai article summary notes: This summary is generated based on the TokenPost.ai language model. It may omit details or differ from the main content.