Behind the 15% increase: Bitcoin is transitioning from a rebound to a structural dominance

Writing by: Fangdao

Bitcoin has risen about 15% over the past 30 days. On the surface, this is a technical rebound; but if we look at the price trend together with the on-chain structure, this upward movement is more like a rebalancing of holder structures.

The “Morning Star” pattern formed since April reflects the process of market from selling off and releasing, to waiting and converging, and then to buying recovery. But what’s truly worth paying attention to is not the pattern itself, but the changes among participants behind the pattern.

On-chain data shows that the proportion contributed by short-term holders within the realized market value has fallen back below 7%. Historically, this level usually corresponds to phases where short-term traders exit and market participation declines. As the chips involved in frequent trading gradually decrease, prices are no longer mainly driven by emotional fluctuations, but increasingly influenced by long-term holder structures.

Capital flows are also aligning with this change. Recently, about $3 billion in net inflows mark the first sustained positive inflow since December last year. This indicates that market funds are shifting from a defensive stance to an accumulation phase. Unlike short-term funds, this type of capital has a higher tolerance for price volatility and is more likely to support trend continuation.

The key level now is around $78,000. Bitcoin has re-established itself above the real market average price of about $78,100, which is the first time since mid-January that it has returned to this level. Further above, around $80,100 corresponds to the cost range of short-term holders.

The significance of this range is not just technical resistance, but also behavioral pressure.

Once the price approaches the short-term holder’s cost line, the funds bought in recent times will enter profit-taking or liquidation. Glassnode data shows that the realized profit of short-term holders has risen to about $4.4 million per hour, significantly higher than the previous local high of around $1.5 million. This indicates that the market is experiencing a round of profit-taking at high levels.

Therefore, the core issue in the current market is not whether the 15% rise has ended, but whether new funds can continue to absorb the chips released by short-term holders.

If ETF and institutional allocation funds continue to flow in, the support zone above $73,000 could become a new cost bottom; if inflows weaken, short-term profit-taking may still suppress the price rhythm again.

This is also what differentiates this rally from a typical technical rebound.

Price is no longer just moving around patterns, but testing the capacity of holder structures to absorb. Technical formations remain important, but what truly determines the trend behind them is who is selling and who is willing to continue holding.

Whether Bitcoin’s rise will continue ultimately depends on whether this redistribution of chips can be completed. After short-term traders exit, the market needs new long-term buyers to take over the next phase of pricing.

References

Benzinga Technical Analysis Report

Ali Martinez On-Chain and Pattern Analysis CryptoQuant / Glassnode Market Structure Data