Arlong Analyzes the Market:

Brothers, this plot twist is happening faster than scrolling through short videos! Just before Iran said it would "absolutely control" the strait, Trump was already throwing tough words on social media: "Iran is collapsing, they’re begging us to open the strait!" 🤯
This news left me completely confused, so let’s break down this “Rashomon” and see who’s really acting.
🗣️ Trump’s “Solo Show”
The master’s words this time are quite explosive:
• Core revelation: Saying Iran can’t hold it anymore, they’re proactively asking the U.S. for help, wanting to open the strait to solve their leadership issues.
• Subtext: “It’s not me being cowardly, Iran is the first to kneel.”
• Reality slap: No official Iranian entity has claimed this. Basically, this is probably Trump’s psychological warfare—calming the market internally, applying maximum pressure externally, trying to take credit for “opening the floodgates” himself.
🎭 The Strait Becomes a “Bargaining Chip”
Don’t be distracted by the mudslinging, look at the essence:
• Iran’s plan: The strait is their biggest card. Want to open it? Pay up (unfreeze funds, relax sanctions).
• America’s plan: Use “blockade” to force Iran to make concessions on nuclear issues.
• Current situation: This is a game of “who blinks first.” Whoever backs down first loses their chips. It’s not about who collapses, but about who can’t handle the toll on oil prices and sanctions first.
🤔 So, who’s setting the pace?
My judgment is:
1. Iran isn’t collapsing: If they had, they would have already fully capitulated, and wouldn’t still be laying mines at sea or detaining ships.
2. Trump is just talking big: This is his classic negotiation tactic—“Declare victory first, then negotiate for real.” Portraying the other side as the collapsing party gives him the initiative.
⚠️ Traders, beware:
This kind of “bluffing” market is the most dangerous. Don’t chase short positions just because of “opening,” don’t chase long just because of “blockade.” The news is full of noise right now, control your positions, wait until the real fireworks start, and don’t be fooled by fake moves!