Arlong Analyzes the Market:

Brothers, this plot twist is happening faster than scrolling through short videos! Just as Iran said it would "absolutely control" the strait, Trump immediately made a tough statement on social media: "Iran is collapsing, they are begging us to open the strait!" 🤯
This news left me completely confused, so let's break down this "Rashomon" and see who is really acting.
🗣️ Trump's "Solo Show"
The master of speeches this time is quite explosive:
• Core revelation: Saying Iran can't hold on internally, and is actively seeking help from the U.S., wanting to open the strait to solve leadership issues.
• Implication: "It's not me being cowardly, Iran is the first to kneel."
• Reality slap: No official Iranian entity has claimed this. Basically, this is probably Trump's psychological warfare—calming the market internally, applying maximum pressure externally, trying to take credit for "initiating the opening."
🎭 The Strait Becomes a "Negotiation Chip"
Don't be distracted by the mudslinging, look at the essence:
• Iran's plan: The strait is its biggest card. Want to open? Pay up (unfreeze funds, relax sanctions).
• U.S. plan: Use "blockade" to force Iran to make concessions on nuclear issues.
• Current situation: This is a game of "who blinks first." Whoever loosens up first loses chips. It’s not about who collapses, but about who can’t handle the toll on oil prices and sanctions first.
🤔 So, who's really setting the pace?
My judgment is:
1. Iran hasn't collapsed: If it had, it would have already fully compromised, and wouldn't still be laying mines at sea and seizing ships.
2. Trump is just talking big: This is his classic negotiation tactic—"call it a win first, then negotiate for real." Portraying the other side as collapsing gives him the initiative.
⚠️ Traders, pay attention:
This kind of "bluffing" market is the most dangerous. Don’t chase short positions just because of "opening," don’t chase long positions just because of "blockade." The news is full of noise right now, control your positions, wait until the real shot is fired, and don’t be fooled by fake moves!