60 days of war, how long will the stalemate between the US and Iran last without fighting or negotiations?

Source: Xinhua News Agency

Since the outbreak of the Iran conflict, 60 days have passed, and the US and Iran have fallen into a deadlock of “no war, no talks.” Recently, Iran’s foreign minister visited multiple countries to respond to the US’s “epic anger” and “economic fury” with a “diplomatic offensive.”

Why have the US and Iran fallen into this current deadlock? How long might such a stalemate last?

International opinion believes that the US and Iran may be caught in a “frozen conflict” situation, with a high risk of reigniting hostilities, but both sides are reluctant to start a full-scale war. Additionally, the tense situation continues to spill over, impacting regional and global security and development. “The war launched by the US to maintain hegemony is making the whole world pay the price.”

What strategic shift is Iran revealing through its “diplomatic offensive”?

In recent days, Iran’s Foreign Minister Amir Abdollahian has engaged in multi-channel diplomacy, visiting Pakistan and meeting with Omani Sultan Haitham. His trip to Russia on the 27th has attracted particular attention.

Russian President Vladimir Putin had a one-and-a-half-hour discussion with Abdollahian in Saint Petersburg. Putin stated that Russia will do its utmost to safeguard the interests of Iran and other Middle Eastern countries and will actively promote peace in the Middle East.

On April 25, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz (left) held talks with Iran’s Foreign Minister Abdollahian in Islamabad. Xinhua News Agency photo (Provided by the Prime Minister’s Office of Pakistan)

According to various sources, through Abdollahian’s visits, Iran proposed a new “step-by-step” negotiation plan with the US: initially focusing on the Hormuz Strait crisis and the US maritime blockade, with a long-term ceasefire or mutual agreement to end hostilities permanently. Nuclear negotiations would only commence once the Strait is reopened and the US blockade is lifted.

Abdollahian also conveyed Iran’s conditions for ending the conflict to Pakistan, including establishing a new management system for the Strait of Hormuz, obtaining war reparations, and ensuring the US lifts the maritime blockade and ceases aggression.

The US has confirmed receipt of Iran’s proposal but has not responded positively. An American official said President Trump on the 27th stated he “does not like this plan,” mainly because it does not address nuclear issues.

Analysts believe that, based on the attitudes of the US and Iran, both sides still have the willingness to continue negotiations.

Iran’s new proposal indicates a strategic shift from an initial comprehensive, all-at-once approach to a phased, more pragmatic action framework. While maintaining its bottom line, Iran is choosing to use multi-channel diplomacy, actively testing the US response, and seeking to take the lead in a new round of negotiations.

Why are the US and Iran stuck in a “no war, no talks” deadlock?

Experts believe that three main reasons have led to this stalemate, which may persist for some time.

First, mutual political trust has completely broken down. Hassan Ahmadian, a professor at Tehran University, said Iran has given up hope of negotiations with the US and will not easily accept US conditions. Abdollahian’s recent visits to Pakistan were more about explaining Iran’s diplomatic efforts to Pakistan.

Second, conflicting negotiation stances. Currently, the US and Iran still have irreconcilable differences on the two core issues: the nuclear program and the Hormuz Strait. At the same time, their negotiation objectives are almost “out in the open.” Qatar’s Al Jazeera reported that, in the face of battlefield setbacks, the US is attempting to use negotiations to “pressure for change” and gain what it couldn’t achieve on the battlefield; Iran, on the other hand, views negotiations as an extension of war and will not easily compromise.

Third, domestic pressures within both countries. Shao University of Foreign Studies expert Bao Chengzhang believes that both the US and Iran face domestic pressures. The Trump administration is caught in a dilemma: unwilling to compromise in negotiations, yet reluctant to go to war with Iran again. With midterm elections approaching, its policy space is further limited. On Iran’s side, the new leadership hopes to strengthen its domestic position through a tough stance against the US, but ongoing conflicts and losses make continued fighting difficult.

On April 16, US President Donald Trump was interviewed by the media on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington. Xinhua News Agency photo (Li Yuanqing)

Analysts believe that behind the “no war, no talks” deadlock, both sides are trying to buy time to gain strategic space. The US aims to weaken Iran’s economy through maritime blockade or even trigger domestic upheaval; Iran hopes to leverage economic pressure from oil price fluctuations and US midterm election politics to “pressure” the Trump administration.

Without major unexpected developments, this confrontation stalemate may continue. Australian scholars suggest that this deadlock could become a “frozen conflict” state, where the root causes of the conflict remain unresolved, low-intensity clashes could erupt at any time, but full-scale war will not occur.

Sixty days of conflict: how is it impacting the world?

The US and Israel’s ongoing conflict has lasted two months, causing increasingly profound effects on the Middle East, the world, and even “our lives.” US media say, “The whole world is paying for the war initiated by the US.”

— The Strait of Hormuz may cause “irreversible impacts.” The Strait, hindered by conflict, has entered a “dual blockade” mode by the US and Iran, continuously impacting global energy markets, blocking trade and supply chains, pressuring food systems, shaking global financial environments, and triggering inflation risks in multiple countries. As a result, many institutions have lowered their global economic growth forecasts for this year.

The Nikkei Asia magazine described this as “the most economically destructive war in half a century,” shaking multiple pillars of the global economy, with effects that will last for years and cannot be quickly reversed.

On April 26, smoke rises after an Israeli military attack at a location in southern Lebanon. Xinhua News Agency photo (Gil Cohen Magen)

— The region faces a dual crisis of security and development. The deadlock between the US, Israel, and Iran may persist long-term, with the risk of renewed and escalating conflict. Meanwhile, regional forces such as the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon could become involved, leading to prolonged instability.

Especially for Gulf countries, US “security guarantees” have become “risk factors.” Ongoing regional turmoil has caused them to lose their status as “Middle Eastern stable oases” for investment, with security and development both facing difficulties.

— The international order is under strain. Iran’s conflict reveals that US hegemonic actions have created a dangerously persistent inertia, becoming a root cause of current global turbulence. If power is unchecked, rules could be broken, leading to a “broken window effect,” with more and more dangerous acts happening more frequently, making the world more turbulent and chaotic.

The Iran conflict, aimed at maintaining US hegemony, is triggering a systemic crisis worldwide. Brahma Cherani, a professor at the Indian Policy Research Center, said, “And the world has just begun to pay the price for this.”