These days, I've been watching on-chain transfers, and people keep saying "What a coincidence," but I'm increasingly thinking that many coincidences are just a matter of not breaking down the path. For example, A sends to B, B then splits into several transactions to new addresses within a few minutes, then loops around into a hot wallet on an exchange, looking like a casual transfer, but actually more like splitting flows and covering tracks... Of course, it could also be a misunderstanding, and I don't dare to swear it’s definitely the case.

Recently, the staking unlocks and token unlock calendar have been brought up again to scare people, everyone is watching to see "Will it cause a dump?" My own approach is still a bit simpler: first, clearly understand the flow of funds, especially the intermediate steps before entering the exchange, which can really explain away a lot of emotions.

But some on-chain traces can be explained logically, yet the results don’t follow the script. Anyway, I’ll just stay steady... Which part do you usually consider as a "confirmation signal"?