BTC Analysis:

Bears: Daily MACD death cross confirmed + 4-hour MACD death cross + volume-driven decline + Coinbase premium turns negative + FOMC hawkish risk. If $76,194 (4-hour SAR) is broken, the 4-hour trend turns bearish, possibly accelerating the drop to $75,000→$74,900. A hawkish FOMC statement may trigger further selling, with the baseline range at $74,900–$80,700. Negative funding rates + cooling open interest also support a bearish outlook.
Bulls: 15-minute MACD golden cross + stabilizing above MA20 confirms short-term rebound initiation; 4-hour WR oversold (-82) provides a bottom-fishing signal; Fear & Greed Index at 26 (extreme fear) has historically been a mid-term bottom signal; ETF inflows for 8 consecutive days totaling $2 billion + Strategy continues to increase holdings + BlackRock’s holdings hitting record highs provide fundamental support; medium-term structure remains above the 50/100-day moving averages. If it can reclaim $76,500–$77,000, the rebound could target $78,000–$79,000; volume breakout above $80,700 invalidates the bearish structure.
Key information:
FOMC statement (today): The most critical event risk, hawkish could accelerate decline, dovish could trigger a rebound
Whether $76,194 holds: 4-hour SAR stop-loss line, breaking below turns the 4-hour bearish
Can it recover $76,500–$77,000: recovery confirms sustained oversold rebound
Can it challenge $78,000–$79,000: key resistance zone for medium-term reversal
Coinbase premium change: turning positive indicates US buying resumes, favorable for rebound