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If oil prices have already risen above $100 per barrel, and the Iran war hasn't ended, why are US stocks still hitting record highs?
The answer is simple.
The AI revolution has become so large that investors are treating everything else as noise, and the AI bubble is making asset holders richer, similar to the first internet bubble.
In the past few months, large tech stocks first moved sideways, then sharply declined under the impact of the Iran war, but the AI narrative has only grown stronger.
The Magnificent 7 will invest over $600 billion in AI alone this year.
And when the market pushes down giants like Nvidia and Alphabet, their forward P/E ratios have also fallen to the cheapest levels since 2019.
At the March 30 bottom, the forward P/E premium of the S&P 500 Information Technology Index over the S&P 500 was only 4%, the lowest since January 2019.
Valuations of tech stocks are even lower than the S&P 500 average components for the first time since 2017.
Take Nvidia as an example: although it has just hit a new all-time high, its forward P/E ratio is only about 26 times.
What about Walmart? 43 times. Costco? 46 times.
The reality is, many large tech stocks have become cheaper during their rise.
Once they fall, their valuations become ridiculously cheap.
In the greatest technological revolution in history, even with oil at $100, a 4.40% yield on 10-year US Treasuries, and market-delayed rate cuts expected after 2027, this train has not derailed—that's the power of a bubble.
This bubble will burst, but not now.